--- title: "Trick or Treat Advanced case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Trick or Treat Advanced ($63.79) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 88.93% over 4,196 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-advanced rendered: 2026-11-12T03:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Trick or Treat Advanced](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-advanced) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Trick or Treat Advanced A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-advanced?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-advanced?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-advanced) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-advanced?window=all) Price · $63.79 · 91.13 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $57.99 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.93% · 4,196 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.80% ±6.75 551 openings 7 days · 88.66% ±2.85 3,056 openings 30 days · 88.93% ±2.43 4,196 openings since tracking started · 88.93% ±2.43 4,196 openings 80.5% 87.8% 95.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-advanced?window=24h) | 551 | 87.80% ±6.75 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-advanced?window=7d) | 3,056 | 88.66% ±2.85 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-advanced) | 4,196 | 88.93% ±2.43 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-advanced?window=all) | 4,196 | 88.93% ±2.43 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,210 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $216 308 coins | 1.9% | 15 | 21.1 | 0.71× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $211 301 coins | 18.2% | 199 | 210.5 | 0.95× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $167 239 coins | 7.2% | 105 | 105.3 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $122 175 coins | 1.1% | 23 | 21.1 | 1.09× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $121 173 coins | 18.8% | 361 | 378.9 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $78.40 112 coins | 6.8% | 206 | 210.5 | 0.98× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $55.94 79.92 coins | 15.9% | 708 | 694.6 | 1.02× | | [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $43.77 62.53 coins | 15.9% | 879 | 884.1 | 0.99× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $34.79 49.7 coins | 9.0% | 610 | 631.5 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $34.46 49.23 coins | 3.0% | 231 | 210.5 | 1.10× | | [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 20.0% | $6.99 9.99 coins | 2.4% | 873 | 842.0 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 12 Nov, 02:34 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=trick-or-treat-advanced) [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $63.79 91.13 coins $211 301 coins 3.30x 2026-11-12 03:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) Hidden $63.79 91.13 coins $34.79 49.7 coins 0.55x 2026-11-12 02:52 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) Hidden $63.79 91.13 coins $34.46 49.23 coins 0.54x 2026-11-12 02:49 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) Hidden $63.79 91.13 coins $6.99 9.99 coins 0.11x 2026-11-12 02:48 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $63.79 91.13 coins $211 301 coins 3.30x 2026-11-12 02:41 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) Hidden $63.79 91.13 coins $6.99 9.99 coins 0.11x 2026-11-12 02:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.79 91.13 coins $55.94 79.92 coins 0.88x 2026-11-12 02:30 UTC [USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.79 91.13 coins $43.77 62.53 coins 0.69x 2026-11-12 02:30 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.79 91.13 coins $55.94 79.92 coins 0.88x 2026-11-12 02:30 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) Hidden $63.79 91.13 coins $6.99 9.99 coins 0.11x 2026-11-12 02:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $63.79 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $64.41 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $64.49 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 35.0% restricted 29.0% classified 21.0% mil spec 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt