--- title: "Trick or Treat Baller case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Trick or Treat Baller ($177.06) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 91.36% over 879 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller rendered: 2026-11-12T06:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Trick or Treat Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Trick or Treat Baller A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller?window=all) Price · $177.06 · 253 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $160.97 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.36% · 879 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 66 openings · below min 7 days · 91.17% ±5.17 625 openings 30 days · 91.36% ±4.35 879 openings since tracking started · 91.36% ±4.35 879 openings 78.5% 95.0% 111.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller?window=24h) | 66 | 94.97% ±16.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller?window=7d) | 625 | 91.17% ±5.17 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller) | 879 | 91.36% ±4.35 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller?window=all) | 879 | 91.36% ±4.35 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 882 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $431 616 coins | 1.1% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.42× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $415 593 coins | 7.7% | 16 | 26.5 | 0.60× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $410 585 coins | 0.8% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.27× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $334 477 coins | 6.2% | 29 | 26.5 | 1.10× | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $293 418 coins | 9.1% | 36 | 44.1 | 0.82× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 17.0% | $286 409 coins | 30.2% | 157 | 149.9 | 1.05× | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $274 392 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 15.5% | $186 266 coins | 17.9% | 150 | 136.7 | 1.10× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $174 249 coins | 7.6% | 55 | 61.7 | 0.89× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 10.0% | $174 248 coins | 10.8% | 99 | 88.2 | 1.12× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $111 158 coins | 1.4% | 19 | 17.6 | 1.08× | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) | 10.0% | $68.68 98.11 coins | 4.3% | 89 | 88.2 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 26.3% | $12.81 18.3 coins | 2.1% | 219 | 232.0 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 12 Nov, 02:34 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=trick-or-treat-baller) [StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-field-tested) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $177 253 coins $12.81 18.3 coins 0.07x 2026-11-12 04:47 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $177 253 coins $334 477 coins 1.89x 2026-11-12 03:06 UTC [Nova | Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) [🍌 Latenight Ape 🍌](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%8D%8C%20Latenight%20Ape%20%F0%9F%8D%8C) $177 253 coins $68.68 98.11 coins 0.39x 2026-11-12 03:06 UTC [Nova | Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) Hidden $177 253 coins $68.68 98.11 coins 0.39x 2026-11-12 03:00 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $177 253 coins $286 409 coins 1.62x 2026-11-12 02:41 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $177 253 coins $286 409 coins 1.62x 2026-11-12 02:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $177 253 coins $186 266 coins 1.05x 2026-11-12 02:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $177 253 coins $186 266 coins 1.05x 2026-11-12 02:28 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $177 253 coins $12.81 18.3 coins 0.07x 2026-11-12 00:22 UTC [Nova | Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) Hidden $177 253 coins $68.68 98.11 coins 0.39x 2026-11-12 00:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $177 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 40.2% mil spec 3.0% restricted 5.0% classified 51.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt