--- title: "Trick or Treat Budget case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Trick or Treat Budget ($26.28) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 10 items with odds, observed 92.00% over 5,432 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-budget rendered: 2026-11-12T08:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Trick or Treat Budget](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-budget) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Trick or Treat Budget A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-budget?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-budget?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-budget) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-budget?window=all) Price · $26.28 · 37.54 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $23.89 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.00% · 5,432 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.97% ±10.59 515 openings 7 days · 92.96% ±3.79 4,064 openings 30 days · 92.00% ±3.28 5,432 openings since tracking started · 92.00% ±3.28 5,432 openings 80.5% 91.8% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-budget?window=24h) | 515 | 91.97% ±10.6 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-budget?window=7d) | 4,064 | 92.96% ±3.79 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-budget) | 5,432 | 92.00% ±3.28 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-budget?window=all) | 5,432 | 92.00% ±3.28 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,443 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $107 153 coins | 35.9% | 425 | 435.4 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $92.40 132 coins | 5.8% | 87 | 81.6 | 1.07× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $74.20 106 coins | 21.7% | 404 | 381.0 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $32.17 45.95 coins | 5.4% | 232 | 217.7 | 1.07× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $27.10 38.71 coins | 7.9% | 390 | 381.0 | 1.02× | | [P2000 \| Woodsman (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-well-worn) | 10.0% | $19.62 28.03 coins | 8.2% | 542 | 544.3 | 1.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $19.03 27.19 coins | 8.8% | 597 | 598.7 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Leather (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $7.35 10.5 coins | 2.8% | 486 | 489.9 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 17.0% | $3.58 5.11 coins | 2.5% | 941 | 925.3 | 1.02× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 25.5% | $0.90 1.29 coins | 1.0% | 1,339 | 1388.0 | 0.96× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 12 Nov, 02:34 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=trick-or-treat-budget) [Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.28 37.54 coins $19.03 27.19 coins 0.72x 2026-11-12 07:43 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) [✪ Bruce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%9C%AA%20Bruce) $26.28 37.54 coins $19.03 27.19 coins 0.72x 2026-11-12 07:35 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $26.28 37.54 coins $107 153 coins 4.08x 2026-11-12 07:34 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.28 37.54 coins $0.90 1.29 coins 0.03x 2026-11-12 07:02 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.28 37.54 coins $19.03 27.19 coins 0.72x 2026-11-12 06:48 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) [Epopcorn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Epopcorn) $26.28 37.54 coins $3.58 5.11 coins 0.14x 2026-11-12 06:41 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.28 37.54 coins $19.03 27.19 coins 0.72x 2026-11-12 06:41 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.28 37.54 coins $19.03 27.19 coins 0.72x 2026-11-12 06:41 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.28 37.54 coins $32.17 45.95 coins 1.22x 2026-11-12 06:35 UTC [P2000 | Woodsman (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-well-worn) Hidden $26.28 37.54 coins $19.62 28.03 coins 0.75x 2026-11-12 06:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.28 | 90.90% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.91 | 90.92% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $26.22 | 90.92% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $26.22 | 90.90% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.22 | 90.92% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.0% classified 12.5% red 4.0% restricted 59.5% industrial 9.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt