--- title: "Trickery Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Trickery Case ($86.79) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 84.60% over 236 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trickery-case rendered: 2026-11-11T16:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Trickery Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trickery-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Trickery Case A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trickery-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trickery-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trickery-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trickery-case?window=all) Price · $86.79 · 124 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $78.90 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.60% · 236 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 27 openings · below min 7 days · 83.96% ±12.80 162 openings 30 days · 84.60% ±10.60 236 openings since tracking started · 84.60% ±10.60 236 openings 63.0% 95.0% 127.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trickery-case?window=24h) | 27 | 95.17% ±31.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trickery-case?window=7d) | 162 | 83.96% ±12.8 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trickery-case) | 236 | 84.60% ±10.6 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trickery-case?window=all) | 236 | 84.60% ±10.6 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 236 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $295 421 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $251 358 coins | 9.5% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $237 338 coins | 1.5% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.39× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $225 321 coins | 2.8% | 6 | 2.4 | 2.54× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 10.0% | $207 296 coins | 26.3% | 11 | 23.6 | 0.47× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $158 225 coins | 10.0% | 12 | 11.8 | 1.02× | | [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 15.0% | $109 155 coins | 20.6% | 36 | 35.4 | 1.02× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $57.77 82.53 coins | 7.3% | 26 | 23.6 | 1.10× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $51.30 73.29 coins | 13.0% | 46 | 47.2 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 10.0% | $38.76 55.37 coins | 4.9% | 21 | 23.6 | 0.89× | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 15.0% | $10.81 15.44 coins | 2.1% | 40 | 35.4 | 1.13× | | [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.73 1.05 coins | 0.1% | 27 | 23.6 | 1.14× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=trickery-case) [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) Hidden $86.79 124 coins $57.77 82.53 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) Hidden $86.79 124 coins $109 155 coins 1.25x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) [yur1 tarded](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/yur1%20tarded) $86.79 124 coins $38.76 55.37 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $86.79 124 coins $10.81 15.44 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.79 124 coins $237 338 coins 2.73x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [yur1 tarded](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/yur1%20tarded) $86.79 124 coins $225 321 coins 2.59x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $86.79 124 coins $10.81 15.44 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) Hidden $86.79 124 coins $158 225 coins 1.81x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [yur1 tarded](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/yur1%20tarded) $86.79 124 coins $51.30 73.29 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.79 124 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $86.79 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $86.80 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $86.66 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $84.52 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 74.5% rare 0.5% restricted 15.0% mil spec 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt