--- title: "Trojan Horse case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Trojan Horse ($6.23) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 86.39% over 8,401 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trojan-horse rendered: 2026-11-11T19:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Trojan Horse](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trojan-horse) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Trojan Horse A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trojan-horse?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trojan-horse?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trojan-horse) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trojan-horse?window=all) Price · $6.23 · 8.9 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $5.66 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.39% · 8,401 openings, odds method Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.15% ±16.59 1,047 openings 7 days · 85.52% ±6.56 6,598 openings 30 days · 86.39% ±5.81 8,401 openings since tracking started · 86.39% ±5.81 8,401 openings 73.0% 90.3% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trojan-horse?window=24h) | 1,047 | 90.15% ±16.6 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trojan-horse?window=7d) | 6,598 | 85.52% ±6.56 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trojan-horse) | 8,401 | 86.39% ±5.81 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trojan-horse?window=all) | 8,401 | 86.39% ±5.81 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,405 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 30,303 | $1,432 2,045 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 21,277 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $398 568 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $291 416 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,538 | $166 237 coins | 1.9% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.28× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-well-worn) | 1 in 1,538 | $87.50 125 coins | 1.0% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.92× | | [Sticker \| pashaBiceps (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pashabiceps-foil-cologne-2015) | 1 in 222 | $53.00 75.71 coins | 4.2% | 40 | 37.8 | 1.06× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $46.17 65.96 coins | 4.9% | 40 | 50.4 | 0.79× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $34.22 48.88 coins | 5.7% | 78 | 79.8 | 0.98× | | [Souvenir AUG \| Condemned (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-condemned-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $30.95 44.21 coins | 7.9% | 105 | 121.9 | 0.86× | | [P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $25.16 35.94 coins | 6.4% | 125 | 121.9 | 1.03× | | [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $23.86 34.09 coins | 11.8% | 223 | 235.3 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ Negev \| Bratatat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-bratatat-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $22.21 31.73 coins | 12.6% | 249 | 270.6 | 0.92× | | [MAG-7 \| Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $17.09 24.41 coins | 10.6% | 310 | 294.2 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $11.20 16 coins | 7.5% | 322 | 319.4 | 1.01× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $10.85 15.5 coins | 7.7% | 335 | 336.2 | 1.00× | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $6.34 9.05 coins | 4.5% | 355 | 336.2 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.74 3.92 coins | 2.5% | 452 | 437.1 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $1.79 2.56 coins | 1.7% | 451 | 453.9 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir AUG \| Spalted Wood (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-spalted-wood-well-worn) | 28.0% | $0.68 0.97 coins | 3.4% | 2,315 | 2353.4 | 0.98× | | [Nova \| Wood Fired (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-well-worn) | 35.0% | $0.24 0.34 coins | 1.5% | 2,991 | 2941.8 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=trojan-horse) [Souvenir AUG | Spalted Wood (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-spalted-wood-well-worn) Hidden $6.23 8.9 coins $0.68 0.97 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-well-worn) Hidden $6.23 8.9 coins $0.24 0.34 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-well-worn) [STW92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/STW92) $6.23 8.9 coins $0.24 0.34 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 8.9 coins $6.34 9.05 coins 1.02x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.23 8.9 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.23 8.9 coins $2.74 3.92 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-well-worn) [STW92](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/STW92) $6.23 8.9 coins $0.24 0.34 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC [AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 8.9 coins $6.34 9.05 coins 1.02x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC [AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 8.9 coins $6.34 9.05 coins 1.02x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Spalted Wood (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-spalted-wood-well-worn) Hidden $6.23 8.9 coins $0.68 0.97 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $6.23 | 90.91% | 21 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $6.24 | 90.93% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.24 | 90.92% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.31 | 90.86% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.31 | 90.89% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.0% covert 0.6% classified 10.8% epic 0.1% exotic 0.4% industrial 29.5% restricted 10.7% mil spec 38.2% consumer 3.5% milspec 5.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt