---
title: "Tropical case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tropical ($79.91) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 85.16% over 672 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tropical
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Tropical](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tropical)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Tropical

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tropical?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tropical?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tropical) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tropical?window=all)

Price · $79.91 · 114 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $72.64 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.16% · 672 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 64 openings · below min

7 days · 84.38% ±12.28 525 openings

30 days · 85.16% ±10.86 672 openings

since tracking started · 85.16% ±10.86 672 openings

62.5% 98.0% 133.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tropical?window=24h) | 64 | 98.07% ±35.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tropical?window=7d) | 525 | 84.38% ±12.3 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tropical) | 672 | 85.16% ±10.9 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tropical?window=all) | 672 | 85.16% ±10.9 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 672 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,424 2,034 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $284 406 coins | 11.7% | 14 | 20.2 | 0.69× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-well-worn) | 10.0% | $244 348 coins | 33.5% | 70 | 67.2 | 1.04× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $235 336 coins | 6.5% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.04× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $214 305 coins | 1.5% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $197 281 coins | 21.7% | 47 | 53.8 | 0.87× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $193 276 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $174 249 coins | 12.0% | 25 | 33.6 | 0.74× |
| [XM1014 \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-factory-new) | 12.0% | $41.54 59.34 coins | 6.9% | 85 | 80.6 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 11.4% | $16.41 23.44 coins | 2.6% | 81 | 76.5 | 1.06× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $4.14 5.91 coins | 0.9% | 106 | 100.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 17.0% | $2.26 3.23 coins | 0.5% | 110 | 114.2 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) | 16.0% | $1.21 1.73 coins | 0.3% | 116 | 107.5 | 1.08× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $79.91 114 coins $1,424 2,034 coins 17.82x 2026-11-09 21:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=tropical)

[Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) Hidden $79.91 114 coins $4.14 5.91 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) [Adsento](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Adsento) $79.91 114 coins $4.14 5.91 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-field-tested) Hidden $79.91 114 coins $2.26 3.23 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) Hidden $79.91 114 coins $4.14 5.91 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $79.91 114 coins $197 281 coins 2.46x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Duelist (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-well-worn) Hidden $79.91 114 coins $244 348 coins 3.05x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) Hidden $79.91 114 coins $1.21 1.73 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC

[P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) Hidden $79.91 114 coins $1.21 1.73 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Duelist (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-well-worn) Hidden $79.91 114 coins $244 348 coins 3.05x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $79.91 114 coins $197 281 coins 2.46x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $79.91 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $79.83 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $78.99 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.6% restricted 69.4% extraordinary 2.0% classified 13.0% legendary 0.0% consumer 12.0% best hit $1,424 (17.82x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt