--- title: "Trump case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Trump ($2.93) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.96% from 14 items with odds, observed 92.26% over 92.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trump rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Trump](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trump) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Trump A case on CSGORoll (knives, 1%, awp, rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trump?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trump?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trump) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trump?window=all) Price · $2.93 · 4.19 coins Advertised RTP · 90.96% · EV $2.67 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.26% · 92.9K openings, odds method Variance · 346.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 208 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.41% ±34.77 11K openings 7 days · 93.29% ±13.02 77.2K openings 30 days · 92.26% ±11.86 92.9K openings since tracking started · 92.26% ±11.86 92.9K openings 54.0% 89.5% 125.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trump?window=24h) | 11K | 89.41% ±34.8 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trump?window=7d) | 77.2K | 93.29% ±13.0 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trump) | 92.9K | 92.26% ±11.9 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trump?window=all) | 92.9K | 92.26% ±11.9 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 93K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000,000 | $158K 225,000 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,809 2,585 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,655 2,364 coins | 0.3% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $738 1,054 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Sticker \| King on the Field sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-king-on-the-field) | 1 in 10,000 | $645 921 coins | 2.4% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.75× | | [Operation Payback Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-payback-pass) | 1 in 5,000 | $443 633 coins | 3.3% | 17 | 18.6 | 0.91× | | [Sticker \| Stewie2K (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-stewie2k-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 2,000 | $437 624 coins | 8.2% | 44 | 46.5 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 1,000 | $329 470 coins | 12.3% | 109 | 93.0 | 1.17× | | [P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $223 318 coins | 12.5% | 156 | 139.5 | 1.12× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $197 281 coins | 11.1% | 130 | 139.5 | 0.93× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $155 221 coins | 8.7% | 126 | 139.5 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $79.10 113 coins | 8.9% | 287 | 279.1 | 1.03× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $43.98 62.83 coins | 8.2% | 474 | 465.1 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) | 98.6% | $0.62 0.89 coins | 23.0% | 91,673 | 91694.1 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $2.97 4.24 coins $1,708 2,440 coins 575.5x 2026-11-06 18:55 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $2.98 4.26 coins $1,655 2,364 coins 554.9x 2026-11-08 20:21 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.97 4.24 coins $732 1,046 coins 246.7x 2026-11-04 15:11 UTC [Sticker | King on the Field sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-king-on-the-field) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $645 921 coins 219.8x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC [Sticker | King on the Field sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-king-on-the-field) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $645 921 coins 219.8x 2026-11-10 20:31 UTC [Sticker | King on the Field sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-king-on-the-field) [zuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/zuk) $2.93 4.19 coins $645 921 coins 219.8x 2026-11-10 14:43 UTC [Sticker | King on the Field sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-king-on-the-field) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $645 921 coins 219.8x 2026-11-10 06:01 UTC [Sticker | King on the Field sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-king-on-the-field) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $645 921 coins 219.8x 2026-11-09 21:40 UTC [Sticker | King on the Field sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-king-on-the-field) Hidden $2.97 4.24 coins $645 921 coins 217.2x 2026-11-08 01:11 UTC [Sticker | King on the Field sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-king-on-the-field) Hidden $2.97 4.24 coins $645 921 coins 217.2x 2026-11-03 19:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=trump) [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) [Alveliraren csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Alveliraren%20csgoroll.com) $2.93 4.19 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $2.93 4.19 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $2.93 | 90.96% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.98 | 90.85% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.00 | 91.00% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.97 | 90.95% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.5% high 0.0% base 0.0% extraordinary 0.2% exotic 0.1% classified 0.1% restricted 0.5% common 98.6% best hit $1,708 (575.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.96 on average: an expected loss of $9.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt