--- title: "Tsunami case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Tsunami ($323.13) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 43.38% over 26 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tsunami rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Tsunami](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tsunami) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Tsunami A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tsunami?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tsunami?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tsunami) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tsunami?window=all) Price · $323.13 · 462 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $293.75 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 43.38% · 26 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 26 openings · below min since tracking started · 26 openings · below min -0.5% 70.5% 141.5% **Small sample.** 26 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tsunami?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tsunami?window=7d) | 14 | 46.91% ±94.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tsunami) | 26 | 43.38% ±69.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tsunami?window=all) | 26 | 43.38% ±69.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 26.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $1,181 1,687 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 33 | $1,000 1,429 coins | 10.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $636 909 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $631 902 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $620 886 coins | 6.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 33 | $562 803 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $279 398 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $221 316 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $216 308 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $207 295 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $161 230 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $143 204 coins | 2.9% | 5 | 1.6 | 3.21× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $95.90 137 coins | 2.3% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.65× | | [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 15.0% | $95.90 137 coins | 4.9% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 15.0% | $91.00 130 coins | 4.6% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 17.5% | $72.80 104 coins | 4.3% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.66× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $328 469 coins $621 887 coins 1.89x 2026-11-04 20:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=tsunami) [USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $328 469 coins $79.10 113 coins 0.24x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $328 469 coins $224 320 coins 0.68x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC [P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $328 469 coins $88.20 126 coins 0.27x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-field-tested) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $328 469 coins $102 145 coins 0.31x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $328 469 coins $145 207 coins 0.44x 2026-11-04 21:34 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $328 469 coins $102 145 coins 0.31x 2026-11-04 21:34 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $328 469 coins $145 207 coins 0.44x 2026-11-04 21:34 UTC [USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $328 469 coins $79.10 113 coins 0.24x 2026-11-04 21:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $328 469 coins $621 887 coins 1.89x 2026-11-04 20:21 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $328 469 coins $145 207 coins 0.44x 2026-11-04 20:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $323 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $324 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $328 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 50.5% extraordinary 2.0% mil spec 15.0% classified 15.0% industrial 17.5% best hit $621 (1.89x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt