---
title: "Underrated case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Underrated ($14.17) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 13 items with odds, observed 90.40% over 7,313 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/underrated
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Underrated](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/underrated)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Underrated

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/underrated?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/underrated?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/underrated) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/underrated?window=all)

Price · $14.17 · 20.24 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $12.88 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.40% · 7,313 openings, odds method

Variance · 62.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.59% ±61.67 631 openings

7 days · 89.19% ±20.08 5,985 openings

30 days · 90.40% ±18.18 7,313 openings

since tracking started · 90.40% ±18.18 7,313 openings

18.5% 80.8% 143.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/underrated?window=24h) | 631 | 80.59% ±61.7 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/underrated?window=7d) | 5,985 | 89.19% ±20.1 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/underrated) | 7,313 | 90.40% ±18.2 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/underrated?window=all) | 7,313 | 90.40% ±18.2 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,313 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,578 6,540 coins | 17.8% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.37× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,271 1,816 coins | 5.9% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,111 | $709 1,013 coins | 5.0% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.46× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $312 446 coins | 12.1% | 38 | 36.6 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $97.30 139 coins | 14.4% | 135 | 138.9 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $70.70 101 coins | 4.9% | 51 | 65.8 | 0.77× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $64.83 92.62 coins | 7.5% | 123 | 109.7 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $10.01 14.3 coins | 6.2% | 595 | 585.0 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $8.44 12.05 coins | 9.8% | 1,109 | 1097.0 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) | 1 in 20 | $7.83 11.18 coins | 3.0% | 379 | 365.7 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Lotus (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus-glitter) | 20.0% | $5.30 7.57 coins | 8.2% | 1,481 | 1462.6 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) | 22.0% | $2.01 2.87 coins | 3.4% | 1,557 | 1608.9 | 0.97× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 25.0% | $0.86 1.23 coins | 1.7% | 1,836 | 1828.3 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [Zwack](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zwack) $14.25 20.36 coins $4,645 6,635 coins 325.9x 2026-11-02 22:49 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $4,578 6,540 coins 323.1x 2026-11-10 10:13 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $4,578 6,540 coins 323.1x 2026-11-10 08:13 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $4,578 6,540 coins 323.1x 2026-11-09 01:16 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $4,578 6,540 coins 323.1x 2026-11-09 00:36 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [R3p csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/R3p%20csgoroll.com) $14.25 20.36 coins $1,271 1,816 coins 89.19x 2026-11-05 21:50 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $709 1,013 coins 49.75x 2026-11-06 21:08 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $709 1,013 coins 49.75x 2026-11-05 15:23 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $709 1,013 coins 49.75x 2026-11-03 15:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=underrated)

[Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $2.01 2.87 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $0.86 1.23 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Sticker | Lotus (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus-glitter) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $14.17 20.24 coins $5.30 7.57 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $10.01 14.3 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $2.01 2.87 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Sticker | Lotus (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus-glitter) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $5.30 7.57 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $0.86 1.23 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $8.44 12.05 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.17 20.24 coins $8.44 12.05 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $14.17 20.24 coins $10.01 14.3 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $14.17 | 90.93% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.16 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.26 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.25 | 90.92% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.0% legendary 0.1% industrial 0.9% uncommon 8.0% restricted 15.0% extraordinary 5.0% remarkable 42.0% #8847ff 25.0% best hit $4,645 (325.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt