--- title: "Upgrade case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Upgrade ($1.97) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.99% from 22 items with odds, observed 93.23% over 60.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/upgrade rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Upgrade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/upgrade) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Upgrade A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/upgrade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/upgrade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/upgrade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/upgrade?window=all) Price · $1.97 · 2.81 coins Advertised RTP · 90.99% · EV $1.79 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.23% · 60.8K openings, odds method Variance · 920.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 2,500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 7,819 openings · below min 7 days · 96.92% ±26.11 51.6K openings 30 days · 93.23% ±24.06 60.8K openings since tracking started · 93.23% ±24.06 60.8K openings -0.5% 62.0% 124.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/upgrade?window=24h) | 7,819 | 56.76% ±67.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/upgrade?window=7d) | 51.6K | 96.92% ±26.1 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/upgrade) | 60.8K | 93.23% ±24.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/upgrade?window=all) | 60.8K | 93.23% ±24.1 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,035 5,765 coins | 22.5% | 10 | 6.1 | 1.64× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,909 4,155 coins | 16.3% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 8.5% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,387 1,982 coins | 7.8% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,165 1,664 coins | 6.5% | 1 | 6.1 | 0.16× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,100 1,572 coins | 6.1% | 9 | 6.1 | 1.48× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,002 1,432 coins | 5.6% | 10 | 6.1 | 1.64× | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $999 1,427 coins | 5.6% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $972 1,388 coins | 5.4% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $605 864 coins | 3.4% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $566 808 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $475 678 coins | 2.7% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $307 438 coins | 1.7% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $241 344 coins | 1.3% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $130 185 coins | 0.7% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $106 152 coins | 0.6% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $104 148 coins | 0.6% | 6 | 6.1 | 0.98× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $64.32 91.88 coins | 0.4% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $49.95 71.36 coins | 0.3% | 10 | 6.1 | 1.64× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $49.83 71.18 coins | 0.3% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 49.8% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.4% | 30,248 | 30352.1 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 30,599 | 30474.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $1.97 2.81 coins $4,035 5,765 coins 2,052x 2026-11-09 11:46 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $1.97 2.81 coins $4,035 5,765 coins 2,052x 2026-11-09 02:32 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $1.97 2.81 coins $4,035 5,765 coins 2,052x 2026-11-08 22:56 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $1.99 2.84 coins $4,035 5,765 coins 2,030x 2026-11-08 12:31 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $1.99 2.84 coins $4,035 5,765 coins 2,030x 2026-11-07 15:31 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $1.99 2.84 coins $4,035 5,765 coins 2,030x 2026-11-07 02:33 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) [User#179](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23179) $1.99 2.84 coins $4,035 5,765 coins 2,030x 2026-11-06 02:53 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $1.99 2.84 coins $4,035 5,765 coins 2,030x 2026-11-05 15:28 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $1.99 2.84 coins $4,035 5,765 coins 2,030x 2026-11-04 17:42 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) [coverq](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/coverq) $1.99 2.84 coins $4,035 5,765 coins 2,030x 2026-11-03 22:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=upgrade) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Sabon10](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sabon10) $1.97 2.81 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.97 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.97 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.97 2.81 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [dinmor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dinmor) $1.97 2.81 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.97 2.81 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.97 2.81 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [dinmor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dinmor) $1.97 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.97 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.97 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.97 | 90.99% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.97 | 90.99% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.99 | 90.93% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.0% covert 0.1% remarkable 0.0% restricted 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% classified 0.0% consumer 99.8% best hit $4,035 (2,052x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.99 on average: an expected loss of $9.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt