---
title: "Urban case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Urban ($2.43) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.85% from 24 items with odds, observed 91.68% over 28.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/urban
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Urban](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/urban)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Urban

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/urban?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/urban?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/urban) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/urban?window=all)

Price · $2.43 · 3.47 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.85% · EV $2.21 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.68% · 28.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.06% ±7.40 4,065 openings

7 days · 92.46% ±2.98 25K openings

30 days · 91.68% ±2.78 28.8K openings

since tracking started · 91.68% ±2.78 28.8K openings

85.0% 93.0% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/urban?window=24h) | 4,065 | 93.06% ±7.40 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/urban?window=7d) | 25K | 92.46% ±2.98 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/urban) | 28.8K | 91.68% ±2.78 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/urban?window=all) | 28.8K | 91.68% ±2.78 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $186 266 coins | 0.8% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $64.83 92.61 coins | 4.4% | 34 | 43.3 | 0.78× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $61.05 87.22 coins | 2.8% | 33 | 28.9 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $48.87 69.82 coins | 1.2% | 18 | 15.9 | 1.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $36.97 52.82 coins | 0.6% | 15 | 10.1 | 1.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $33.57 47.95 coins | 3.8% | 61 | 72.2 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $25.93 37.05 coins | 8.2% | 220 | 202.1 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $24.95 35.64 coins | 5.7% | 122 | 144.4 | 0.85× |
| [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $21.95 31.35 coins | 3.5% | 114 | 101.1 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $18.43 26.33 coins | 7.9% | 282 | 274.3 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $11.18 15.97 coins | 6.3% | 368 | 360.9 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $9.80 14 coins | 6.2% | 429 | 404.3 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $9.50 13.57 coins | 9.9% | 672 | 664.1 | 1.01× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $9.00 12.85 coins | 8.2% | 615 | 577.5 | 1.06× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $5.52 7.89 coins | 2.9% | 321 | 332.1 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $4.07 5.82 coins | 5.4% | 804 | 837.4 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $4.02 5.75 coins | 3.1% | 483 | 490.9 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.57 3.67 coins | 3.5% | 843 | 866.3 | 0.97× |
| [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.39 1.98 coins | 2.5% | 1,185 | 1155.0 | 1.03× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.30 1.86 coins | 3.2% | 1,595 | 1588.1 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.09 1.55 coins | 3.4% | 2,024 | 2021.3 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.44 0.63 coins | 1.6% | 2,324 | 2310.0 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-well-worn) | 27.0% | $0.19 0.27 coins | 2.3% | 7,606 | 7796.3 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-battle-scarred) | 29.7% | $0.19 0.27 coins | 2.5% | 8,703 | 8575.9 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $2.42 3.45 coins $186 266 coins 77.10x 2026-11-08 23:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $2.36 3.37 coins $179 255 coins 75.67x 2026-11-06 16:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $2.36 3.37 coins $179 255 coins 75.67x 2026-11-06 09:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $2.36 3.37 coins $179 255 coins 75.67x 2026-11-05 13:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=urban)

[Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.43 3.47 coins $1.30 1.86 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-well-worn) Hidden $2.43 3.47 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[MAG-7 | Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-minimal-wear) [PsIcHo csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PsIcHo%20csgoroll.com) $2.43 3.47 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-well-worn) Hidden $2.43 3.47 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.43 3.47 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[MAG-7 | Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.43 3.47 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-well-worn) [StephanCurry csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/StephanCurry%20csgoroll.com) $2.43 3.47 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.43 3.47 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-minimal-wear) [PsIcHo csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PsIcHo%20csgoroll.com) $2.43 3.47 coins $1.30 1.86 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.43 3.47 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $2.43 | 90.85% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $2.43 | 90.87% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $2.43 | 90.78% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.43 | 90.89% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $2.43 | 90.80% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $2.43 | 90.84% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.42 | 90.94% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.37 | 90.81% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2.36 | 91.04% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.36 | 91.03% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $2.36 | 90.95% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $2.36 | 90.88% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $2.36 | 90.97% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $2.36 | 90.89% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.36 | 90.88% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.38 | 90.86% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% red 0.1% classified 5.9% mil spec 74.0% restricted 9.9% violet 2.9% consumer 7.0% best hit $186 (77.10x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.85 on average: an expected loss of $9.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt