--- title: "Utopia case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Utopia ($97.69) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 106.62% over 289 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/utopia rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Utopia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/utopia) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Utopia A case on CSGORoll (knives, gloves, 30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/utopia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/utopia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/utopia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/utopia?window=all) Price · $97.69 · 140 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $88.81 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.62% · 289 openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 31 openings · below min 7 days · 99.43% ±28.74 203 openings 30 days · 106.62% ±24.09 289 openings since tracking started · 106.62% ±24.09 289 openings 48.5% 122.8% 197.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/utopia?window=24h) | 31 | 122.58% ±73.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/utopia?window=7d) | 203 | 99.43% ±28.7 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/utopia) | 289 | 106.62% ±24.1 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/utopia?window=all) | 289 | 106.62% ±24.1 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 289 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $20.8K 29,650 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,918 7,025 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,033 2,905 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,411 2,015 coins | 4.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,397 1,995 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,364 1,948 coins | 6.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.73× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $640 914 coins | 7.2% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $555 793 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $507 725 coins | 8.6% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.38× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $330 472 coins | 8.2% | 11 | 6.4 | 1.73× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $263 376 coins | 10.4% | 15 | 10.1 | 1.48× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $197 281 coins | 7.5% | 14 | 9.8 | 1.42× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $135 193 coins | 9.1% | 18 | 17.3 | 1.04× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $111 158 coins | 8.7% | 22 | 20.2 | 1.09× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $34.79 49.7 coins | 3.1% | 24 | 23.1 | 1.04× | | [Souvenir MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $26.46 37.8 coins | 2.7% | 24 | 26.0 | 0.92× | | [Sticker \| Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) | 20.0% | $17.67 25.25 coins | 4.0% | 66 | 57.8 | 1.14× | | [Sticker \| Opal Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-opal-flick-holo) | 36.3% | $7.05 10.07 coins | 2.9% | 81 | 104.9 | 0.77× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) [ZaneTrain](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ZaneTrain) $99.40 142 coins $2,033 2,905 coins 20.46x 2026-11-05 17:03 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) Hidden $99.40 142 coins $1,460 2,085 coins 14.68x 2026-11-03 02:15 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-factory-new) Hidden $97.69 140 coins $1,364 1,948 coins 13.96x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-factory-new) Hidden $99.40 142 coins $1,364 1,948 coins 13.72x 2026-11-07 18:37 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [⍟ Xiro ⍟](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%8D%9F%20Xiro%20%E2%8D%9F) $99.40 142 coins $683 975 coins 6.87x 2026-11-04 01:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $99.40 142 coins $683 975 coins 6.87x 2026-11-02 22:05 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [Michał](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Micha%C5%82) $97.69 140 coins $640 914 coins 6.55x 2026-11-10 01:50 UTC [AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $97.69 140 coins $555 793 coins 5.68x 2026-11-10 01:50 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $99.40 142 coins $512 732 coins 5.15x 2026-11-03 23:30 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $99.40 142 coins $512 732 coins 5.15x 2026-11-03 02:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=utopia) [★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $97.69 140 coins $330 472 coins 3.38x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) Hidden $97.69 140 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) Hidden $97.69 140 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $97.69 140 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) Hidden $97.69 140 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) Hidden $97.69 140 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-factory-new) Hidden $97.69 140 coins $1,364 1,948 coins 13.96x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) Hidden $97.69 140 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $97.69 140 coins $197 281 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [Sticker | Opal Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-opal-flick-holo) Hidden $97.69 140 coins $7.05 10.07 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $97.69 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $97.39 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.40 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 56.3% legendary 4.2% extraordinary 0.2% covert 11.6% epic 1.5% gold 9.2% mil spec 8.0% restricted 9.0% best hit $2,033 (20.46x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt