--- title: "Vagabond case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vagabond ($5.73) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 92.24% over 3,774 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vagabond rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Vagabond](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vagabond) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Vagabond A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vagabond?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vagabond?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vagabond) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vagabond?window=all) Price · $5.73 · 8.18 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $5.21 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.24% · 3,774 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 35.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.92% ±7.89 333 openings 7 days · 91.87% ±2.55 3,203 openings 30 days · 92.24% ±2.34 3,774 openings since tracking started · 92.24% ±2.34 3,774 openings 83.5% 92.0% 100.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vagabond?window=24h) | 333 | 91.92% ±7.89 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vagabond?window=7d) | 3,203 | 91.87% ±2.55 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vagabond) | 3,774 | 92.24% ±2.34 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vagabond?window=all) | 3,774 | 92.24% ±2.34 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,882 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 28,571 | $32.91 47.02 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $31.05 44.36 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $27.98 39.97 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $25.61 36.58 coins | 0.2% | 6 | 1.9 | 3.09× | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,212 | $25.18 35.97 coins | 0.4% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | | [Sticker \| Team EnVyUs (Holo) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-envyus-holo-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 200 | $23.21 33.16 coins | 2.2% | 17 | 19.4 | 0.88× | | [Sticker \| OpTic Gaming (Holo) \| London 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-holo-london-2018) | 1 in 200 | $22.49 32.13 coins | 2.2% | 29 | 19.4 | 1.49× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $20.37 29.1 coins | 3.5% | 21 | 34.9 | 0.60× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $17.72 25.31 coins | 3.2% | 32 | 36.9 | 0.87× | | [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $16.31 23.3 coins | 3.1% | 41 | 38.8 | 1.06× | | [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $12.25 17.5 coins | 2.8% | 62 | 46.6 | 1.33× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $11.19 15.98 coins | 3.8% | 51 | 67.9 | 0.75× | | [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $10.42 14.88 coins | 4.0% | 95 | 77.6 | 1.22× | | [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $10.29 14.7 coins | 4.2% | 83 | 81.5 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $9.37 13.39 coins | 4.1% | 91 | 89.3 | 1.02× | | [MP7 \| Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $8.30 11.86 coins | 4.1% | 83 | 100.9 | 0.82× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Contamination (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-contamination-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $7.05 10.07 coins | 8.8% | 261 | 252.3 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 12.6% | $6.84 9.77 coins | 16.5% | 510 | 487.2 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-incinegator-battle-scarred) | 12.8% | $5.41 7.73 coins | 13.3% | 494 | 495.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-powercore-factory-new) | 14.0% | $4.49 6.41 coins | 12.1% | 554 | 543.5 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) | 15.0% | $2.93 4.18 coins | 8.4% | 587 | 582.3 | 1.01× | | [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) | 23.3% | $0.65 0.93 coins | 2.9% | 861 | 902.6 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=vagabond) [R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) Hidden $5.73 8.18 coins $0.65 0.93 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) [gaygay](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gaygay) $5.73 8.18 coins $0.65 0.93 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) Hidden $5.73 8.18 coins $2.93 4.18 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [MP7 | Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-factory-new) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $5.73 8.18 coins $8.30 11.86 coins 1.45x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) Hidden $5.73 8.18 coins $2.93 4.18 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) Hidden $5.73 8.18 coins $0.65 0.93 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) Hidden $5.73 8.18 coins $2.93 4.18 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) Hidden $5.73 8.18 coins $2.93 4.18 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) Hidden $5.73 8.18 coins $0.65 0.93 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $5.73 8.18 coins $2.93 4.18 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $5.73 | 90.91% | 22 | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.73 | 90.89% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.74 | 90.92% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $5.96 | 90.86% | 22 | | 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.97 | 90.89% | 22 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $5.96 | 90.90% | 22 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.98 | 90.88% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.13 | 90.92% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 18.1% mil spec 24.5% industrial 6.5% restricted 48.2% remarkable 1.0% Legendary 1.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt