---
title: "Venom case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Venom ($88.10) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 86.01% over 172 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/venom
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Venom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/venom)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Venom

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/venom?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/venom?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/venom) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/venom?window=all)

Price · $88.10 · 126 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $80.09 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.01% · 172 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.46% ±15.93 122 openings

7 days · 86.64% ±13.52 166 openings

30 days · 86.01% ±13.26 172 openings

since tracking started · 86.01% ±13.26 172 openings

72.0% 89.5% 107.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/venom?window=24h) | 122 | 90.46% ±15.9 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/venom?window=7d) | 166 | 86.64% ±13.5 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/venom) | 172 | 86.01% ±13.3 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/venom?window=all) | 172 | 86.01% ±13.3 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,170 1,672 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 3,333 | $874 1,248 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $582 832 coins | 7.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $563 804 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 345 | $390 557 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $356 508 coins | 6.7% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $316 452 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $316 452 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $292 417 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $214 305 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $153 218 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $101 144 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $98.70 141 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 90.0% | $59.91 85.58 coins | 67.3% | 160 | 154.8 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $582 832 coins 6.61x 2026-11-11 09:10 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $582 832 coins 6.61x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=venom)

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $88.10 126 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.10 126 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $88.10 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $92.11 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $92.20 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 95.8% restricted 3.5% rare 0.2% classified 0.5% best hit $582 (6.61x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt