---
title: "Vermillion case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Vermillion ($169.92) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 34 items with odds, observed 90.38% over 120 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vermillion
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Vermillion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vermillion)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Vermillion

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vermillion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vermillion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vermillion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vermillion?window=all)

Price · $169.92 · 243 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $154.48 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.38% · 120 openings, odds method

Variance · 24.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 14 openings · below min

7 days · 92.52% ±93.95 104 openings

30 days · 90.38% ±87.35 120 openings

since tracking started · 90.38% ±87.35 120 openings

-0.5% 145.5% 291.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vermillion?window=24h) | 14 | 33.73% ±257.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vermillion?window=7d) | 104 | 92.52% ±93.9 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vermillion) | 120 | 90.38% ±87.4 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vermillion?window=all) | 120 | 90.38% ±87.4 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $140K 200,000 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $70K 100,000 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new-titan-holo-3x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $56K 80,000 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $31.5K 45,000 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,297 10,425 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,252 10,360 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $6,269 8,955 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 286 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,069 2,955 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,333 | $1,544 2,206 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $1,142 1,631 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $1,000 1,428 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $931 1,330 coins | 8.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $878 1,254 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $555 793 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $493 705 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $378 540 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $328 469 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 87 | $319 455 coins | 2.4% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.17× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $291 416 coins | 1.9% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $282 403 coins | 2.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $120 172 coins | 1.5% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $116 166 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $111 159 coins | 9.0% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $111 158 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $104 148 coins | 1.2% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 12.5% | $89.60 128 coins | 7.3% | 18 | 15.0 | 1.20× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $78.40 112 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $77.70 111 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 12.5% | $52.26 74.66 coins | 4.2% | 23 | 15.0 | 1.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 12.5% | $40.12 57.31 coins | 3.2% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $38.51 55.01 coins | 0.5% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $35.94 51.34 coins | 2.9% | 8 | 15.0 | 0.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $17.47 24.95 coins | 1.4% | 16 | 15.0 | 1.07× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $173 247 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 11.99x 2026-11-08 01:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $170 243 coins $2,069 2,955 coins 12.17x 2026-11-09 12:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $171 244 coins $2,069 2,955 coins 12.12x 2026-11-08 17:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $170 243 coins $1,142 1,631 coins 6.72x 2026-11-10 00:11 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $173 247 coins $944 1,349 coins 5.46x 2026-11-03 22:54 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $170 243 coins $931 1,330 coins 5.47x 2026-11-08 17:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=vermillion)

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) Hidden $170 243 coins $52.26 74.66 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) Hidden $170 243 coins $89.60 128 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) Hidden $170 243 coins $17.47 24.95 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $170 243 coins $111 159 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) Hidden $170 243 coins $89.60 128 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) Hidden $170 243 coins $89.60 128 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) Hidden $170 243 coins $52.26 74.66 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) Hidden $170 243 coins $17.47 24.95 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $170 243 coins $40.12 57.31 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [560 HP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/560%20HP) $170 243 coins $40.12 57.31 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $170 | 90.91% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $170 | 90.91% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $173 | 90.91% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 1.3% contraband 0.1% covert 62.1% extraordinary 5.3% restricted 16.8% rare 2.0% classified 12.5% best hit $2,076 (11.99x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt