--- title: "Vibrant case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vibrant ($77.20) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 100.56% over 41 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vibrant rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Vibrant](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vibrant) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Vibrant A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vibrant?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vibrant?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vibrant) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vibrant?window=all) Price · $77.20 · 110 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $70.19 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.56% · 41 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 39.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 49.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 41 openings · below min 30 days · 41 openings · below min since tracking started · 41 openings · below min 74.5% 100.5% 126.5% **Small sample.** 41 openings and 16.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vibrant?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vibrant?window=7d) | 41 | 100.56% ±25.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vibrant) | 41 | 100.56% ±25.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vibrant?window=all) | 41 | 100.56% ±25.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $328 469 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $256 366 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $190 272 coins | 16.3% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $133 190 coins | 11.4% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.03× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $130 186 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $129 184 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $122 175 coins | 7.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $113 161 coins | 32.1% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 50 | $106 151 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $102 146 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $84.70 121 coins | 8.4% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $21.34 30.48 coins | 2.8% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $13.66 19.51 coins | 3.9% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× | | [Sticker \| Dead Eye (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dead-eye-holo) | 20.0% | $6.57 9.39 coins | 1.9% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=vibrant) [Sticker | Dead Eye (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dead-eye-holo) [Liberties](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Liberties) $77.01 110 coins $6.13 8.76 coins 0.08x 2026-11-07 12:15 UTC [Sticker | Dead Eye (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dead-eye-holo) Hidden $77.01 110 coins $6.13 8.76 coins 0.08x 2026-11-07 12:15 UTC [Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $77.01 110 coins $22.43 32.04 coins 0.29x 2026-11-07 12:15 UTC [AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) Hidden $77.01 110 coins $84.00 120 coins 1.09x 2026-11-07 12:15 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.01 110 coins $113 161 coins 1.46x 2026-11-07 12:15 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.01 110 coins $134 192 coins 1.75x 2026-11-07 12:15 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.01 110 coins $181 259 coins 2.35x 2026-11-07 12:12 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.01 110 coins $134 192 coins 1.75x 2026-11-07 12:12 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) Hidden $77.01 110 coins $14.07 20.1 coins 0.18x 2026-11-07 12:12 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.01 110 coins $134 192 coins 1.75x 2026-11-07 12:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $77.20 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $77.25 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $77.01 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 33.3% mil spec 6.0% epic 0.7% classified 31.0% restricted 9.0% remarkable 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt