---
title: "Victory case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Victory ($201.77) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 96.95% over 73 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/victory
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Victory](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/victory)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Victory

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/victory?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/victory?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/victory) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/victory?window=all)

Price · $201.77 · 288 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $183.42 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.95% · 73 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 55 openings · below min

30 days · 73 openings · below min

since tracking started · 73 openings · below min

32.0% 89.0% 146.0%

**Small sample.** 73 openings and 11.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/victory?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/victory?window=7d) | 55 | 88.45% ±55.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/victory) | 73 | 96.95% ±48.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/victory?window=all) | 73 | 96.95% ±48.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 333 | $7,252 10,360 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,024 4,320 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,067 1,524 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $947 1,353 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $587 838 coins | 13.8% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $566 809 coins | 4.0% | 4 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 42 | $457 653 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $412 588 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 27 | $393 561 coins | 7.9% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.85× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $382 545 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 14.0% | $235 336 coins | 18.0% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $225 321 coins | 3.4% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $130 186 coins | 3.5% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 11 | $118 168 coins | 5.8% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 12.0% | $113 162 coins | 7.4% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.03× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $71.40 102 coins | 2.7% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 20.0% | $52.51 75.02 coins | 5.7% | 13 | 14.6 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 15.0% | $5.94 8.48 coins | 0.5% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.82× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 287 coins $926 1,323 coins 4.61x 2026-11-04 20:05 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 287 coins $600 857 coins 2.98x 2026-11-07 23:47 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 287 coins $600 857 coins 2.98x 2026-11-02 23:31 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $202 288 coins $587 838 coins 2.91x 2026-11-09 23:57 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $202 288 coins $566 809 coins 2.81x 2026-11-10 00:43 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $202 288 coins $566 809 coins 2.81x 2026-11-09 23:57 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $201 287 coins $536 765 coins 2.66x 2026-11-07 23:47 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $201 287 coins $536 765 coins 2.66x 2026-11-03 22:58 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $201 287 coins $536 765 coins 2.66x 2026-11-03 22:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=victory)

[M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $202 288 coins $113 162 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 03:15 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $202 288 coins $118 168 coins 0.58x 2026-11-10 03:15 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [Luxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Luxi) $202 288 coins $118 168 coins 0.58x 2026-11-10 03:15 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) Hidden $202 288 coins $130 186 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 03:15 UTC

[SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) Hidden $202 288 coins $5.94 8.48 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 00:43 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $202 288 coins $393 561 coins 1.95x 2026-11-10 00:43 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) Hidden $202 288 coins $412 588 coins 2.04x 2026-11-10 00:43 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [Vuitton](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vuitton) $202 288 coins $118 168 coins 0.58x 2026-11-10 00:43 UTC

[SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) [Vuitton](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vuitton) $202 288 coins $5.94 8.48 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 00:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $202 288 coins $52.51 75.02 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 00:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $202 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $202 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $201 | 90.91% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 65.1% extraordinary 20.0% classified 15.0% best hit $926 (4.61x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt