--- title: "Violet Dreams case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Violet Dreams ($46.75) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 97.57% over 452 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/violet-dreams rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Violet Dreams](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/violet-dreams) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Violet Dreams A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/violet-dreams?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/violet-dreams?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/violet-dreams) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/violet-dreams?window=all) Price · $46.75 · 66.78 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $42.49 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.57% · 452 openings, odds method Variance · 12.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 28 openings · below min 7 days · 90.68% ±35.06 388 openings 30 days · 97.57% ±32.49 452 openings since tracking started · 97.57% ±32.49 452 openings -0.5% 99.3% 199.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/violet-dreams?window=24h) | 28 | 68.58% ±130.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/violet-dreams?window=7d) | 388 | 90.68% ±35.1 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/violet-dreams) | 452 | 97.57% ±32.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/violet-dreams?window=all) | 452 | 97.57% ±32.5 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $2,088 2,983 coins | 12.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,716 2,451 coins | 10.1% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.65× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,614 2,305 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $570 814 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $329 470 coins | 3.9% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $326 465 coins | 3.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $257 367 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $248 354 coins | 4.4% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× | | [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $192 274 coins | 4.5% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.88× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $158 226 coins | 3.7% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $87.50 125 coins | 2.1% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.66× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $80.50 115 coins | 1.9% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.55× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $64.13 91.62 coins | 1.5% | 8 | 4.5 | 1.77× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $49.87 71.24 coins | 1.8% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.47× | | [Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog-foil) | 30.0% | $27.60 39.43 coins | 19.5% | 128 | 135.6 | 0.94× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $12.66 18.09 coins | 8.9% | 144 | 135.6 | 1.06× | | [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $6.07 8.67 coins | 4.3% | 127 | 135.6 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $46.72 66.74 coins $2,088 2,983 coins 44.70x 2026-11-04 10:11 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-factory-new) [Robond](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Robond) $46.72 66.74 coins $1,733 2,476 coins 37.10x 2026-11-06 18:44 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-factory-new) Hidden $46.75 66.78 coins $1,716 2,451 coins 36.70x 2026-11-09 13:06 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-factory-new) Hidden $46.75 66.78 coins $1,716 2,451 coins 36.70x 2026-11-09 12:59 UTC [★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [I AM THE PIRATE KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20AM%20THE%20PIRATE%20KING) $46.75 66.78 coins $570 814 coins 12.19x 2026-11-09 13:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=violet-dreams) [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.75 66.78 coins $6.07 8.67 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.75 66.78 coins $6.07 8.67 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.75 66.78 coins $6.07 8.67 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.75 66.78 coins $12.66 18.09 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.75 66.78 coins $12.66 18.09 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [🔸Regular🔸](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%94%B8Regular%F0%9F%94%B8) $46.75 66.78 coins $12.66 18.09 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.75 66.78 coins $192 274 coins 4.10x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.75 66.78 coins $12.66 18.09 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.75 66.78 coins $12.66 18.09 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [Jompen♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jompen%E2%99%BF) $46.75 66.78 coins $12.66 18.09 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $46.75 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $46.46 | 90.90% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $46.72 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.3% legendary 0.3% epic 2.5% mil spec 61.0% rare 1.0% exotic 30.0% best hit $2,088 (44.70x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt