--- title: "Vision case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vision ($42.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 95.61% over 512 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vision rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Vision](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vision) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Vision A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vision?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vision?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vision) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vision?window=all) Price · $42.09 · 60.13 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $38.27 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.61% · 512 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 97.78% ±16.91 311 openings 30 days · 95.61% ±13.21 512 openings since tracking started · 95.61% ±13.21 512 openings 29.5% 72.5% 115.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vision?window=24h) | 56 | 69.75% ±39.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vision?window=7d) | 311 | 97.78% ±16.9 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vision) | 512 | 95.61% ±13.2 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vision?window=all) | 512 | 95.61% ±13.2 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 512 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 17.5% | $174 249 coins | 79.9% | 94 | 89.8 | 1.05× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $119 170 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $109 156 coins | 2.9% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $90.30 129 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $60.40 86.28 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $51.07 72.95 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $36.81 52.59 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.56× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $33.42 47.74 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $31.09 44.42 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× | | [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $23.72 33.88 coins | 2.5% | 19 | 20.5 | 0.93× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $17.16 24.51 coins | 1.3% | 14 | 15.4 | 0.91× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $16.93 24.18 coins | 0.7% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.17× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 16.0% | $15.49 22.13 coins | 6.5% | 78 | 81.9 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $14.59 20.84 coins | 1.9% | 28 | 25.6 | 1.09× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $13.29 18.98 coins | 2.1% | 35 | 30.7 | 1.14× | | [P2000 \| Grassland (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.54 12.2 coins | 1.1% | 24 | 25.6 | 0.94× | | [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.35 0.5 coins | 0.2% | 109 | 102.4 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.08 0.11 coins | 0.0% | 89 | 102.4 | 0.87× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=vision) [UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-field-tested) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $0.08 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $42.09 60.13 coins $0.08 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $174 249 coins 4.14x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-field-tested) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $42.09 60.13 coins $0.08 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $15.49 22.13 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $15.49 22.13 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $15.49 22.13 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $15.49 22.13 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $42.09 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $42.09 | 90.90% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $41.98 | 90.90% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $41.29 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $41.01 | 90.90% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 18.6% classified 9.6% Mythical 0.3% extraordinary 0.1% industrial 8.0% restricted 7.5% mil spec 36.0% Uncommon 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt