--- title: "Vivid case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vivid ($1.15) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.87% from 21 items with odds, observed 91.46% over 36K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vivid rendered: 2026-11-11T13:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Vivid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vivid) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Vivid A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vivid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vivid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vivid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vivid?window=all) Price · $1.15 · 1.64 coins Advertised RTP · 90.87% · EV $1.04 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.46% · 36K openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 95.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.87% ±3.79 4,831 openings 7 days · 91.85% ±1.49 30.6K openings 30 days · 91.46% ±1.38 36K openings since tracking started · 91.46% ±1.38 36K openings 81.5% 87.8% 94.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vivid?window=24h) | 4,831 | 85.87% ±3.79 | −2.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vivid?window=7d) | 30.6K | 91.85% ±1.49 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vivid) | 36K | 91.46% ±1.38 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vivid?window=all) | 36K | 91.46% ±1.38 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $74.20 106 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $42.06 60.08 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $40.21 57.44 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $29.87 42.67 coins | 1.4% | 26 | 18.0 | 1.44× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $15.62 22.31 coins | 0.4% | 15 | 10.8 | 1.39× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 394 | $15.11 21.59 coins | 3.7% | 87 | 91.6 | 0.95× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $8.20 11.71 coins | 7.9% | 362 | 360.4 | 1.00× | | [Buckshot \| NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/buckshot-nswc-seal) | 1 in 667 | $5.35 7.65 coins | 0.8% | 53 | 54.1 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4.77 6.82 coins | 4.6% | 357 | 360.4 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $4.61 6.58 coins | 4.4% | 368 | 360.4 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $3.39 4.85 coins | 3.3% | 373 | 360.4 | 1.03× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2.10 3 coins | 2.0% | 352 | 360.4 | 0.98× | | [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $1.72 2.45 coins | 1.6% | 332 | 360.4 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $1.65 2.36 coins | 1.6% | 360 | 360.4 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $1.31 1.87 coins | 3.1% | 926 | 901.1 | 1.03× | | [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1.20 1.72 coins | 1.2% | 383 | 360.4 | 1.06× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $1.06 1.51 coins | 1.5% | 527 | 540.7 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.88 1.25 coins | 2.1% | 878 | 901.1 | 0.97× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) | 80.0% | $0.73 1.05 coins | 56.4% | 28,859 | 28836.0 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $0.69 0.98 coins | 1.6% | 875 | 901.1 | 0.97× | | [P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.68 0.97 coins | 1.6% | 908 | 901.1 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) [Kent](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kent) $1.15 1.64 coins $74.20 106 coins 64.63x 2026-11-09 19:18 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) [Fresh-acc 2,000hours uKatowa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fresh-acc%202%2C000hours%20uKatowa) $1.17 1.67 coins $74.20 106 coins 63.47x 2026-11-08 20:57 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) Hidden $1.17 1.67 coins $73.50 105 coins 62.87x 2026-11-05 19:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=vivid) [Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.15 1.64 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.15 1.64 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.15 1.64 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) [lastenkoskija](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/lastenkoskija) $1.15 1.64 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.15 1.64 coins $1.20 1.72 coins 1.05x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [P2000 | Imperial (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-factory-new) Hidden $1.15 1.64 coins $0.69 0.98 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) [lastenkoskija](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/lastenkoskija) $1.15 1.64 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.15 1.64 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.15 1.64 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.15 1.64 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $1.15 | 90.87% | 21 | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $1.15 | 90.89% | 21 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.15 | 90.88% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.18 | 90.73% | 21 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.17 | 91.13% | 21 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $1.17 | 91.08% | 21 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $1.17 | 90.95% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.17 | 90.96% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% rare 0.0% restricted 9.6% classified 1.3% violet 0.1% mil spec 7.0% industrial 1.0% common 81.0% best hit $74.20 (64.63x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.87 on average: an expected loss of $9.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt