---
title: "Volatile case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Volatile ($135.86) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 75.95% over 140 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volatile
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Volatile](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volatile)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Volatile

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volatile?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volatile?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volatile) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volatile?window=all)

Price · $135.86 · 194 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $123.51 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.95% · 140 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 78.28% ±33.96 120 openings

30 days · 75.95% ±31.45 140 openings

since tracking started · 75.95% ±31.45 140 openings

-0.5% 130.3% 261.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volatile?window=24h) | 2 | 1.09% ±259.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volatile?window=7d) | 120 | 78.28% ±34.0 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volatile) | 140 | 75.95% ±31.4 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volatile?window=all) | 140 | 75.95% ±31.4 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $3,213 4,590 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 333 | $630 900 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $566 809 coins | 13.8% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 20 | $349 498 coins | 14.1% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 11.0% | $265 379 coins | 23.6% | 9 | 15.4 | 0.58× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 11.0% | $242 346 coins | 21.6% | 17 | 15.4 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 13.0% | $148 211 coins | 15.5% | 23 | 18.2 | 1.26× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 14.0% | $1.60 2.28 coins | 0.2% | 21 | 19.6 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $1.48 2.12 coins | 0.2% | 19 | 25.2 | 0.75× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 24.4% | $0.95 1.36 coins | 0.2% | 40 | 34.2 | 1.17× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $138 197 coins $600 857 coins 4.34x 2026-11-08 03:58 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $138 197 coins $600 857 coins 4.34x 2026-11-08 03:55 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $138 197 coins $600 857 coins 4.34x 2026-11-08 03:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=volatile)

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $136 194 coins $265 379 coins 1.95x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $136 194 coins $242 346 coins 1.78x 2026-11-10 19:40 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $136 194 coins $242 346 coins 1.78x 2026-11-10 19:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) Hidden $136 194 coins $1.48 2.12 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 15:52 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) [alguz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/alguz) $136 194 coins $1.48 2.12 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 15:52 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $136 194 coins $0.95 1.36 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $136 194 coins $0.95 1.36 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) [d3ad](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/d3ad) $136 194 coins $0.95 1.36 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) Hidden $136 194 coins $1.60 2.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $136 194 coins $0.95 1.36 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $136 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $136 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $136 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $136 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $138 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $138 | 90.91% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 43.4% classified 24.6% restricted 14.0% mil spec 18.0% best hit $600 (4.34x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt