---
title: "Volcanic case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Volcanic ($188.91) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 60.36% over 117 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volcanic
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Volcanic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volcanic)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Volcanic

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volcanic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volcanic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volcanic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volcanic?window=all)

Price · $188.91 · 270 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $171.73 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 60.36% · 117 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 98 openings · below min

30 days · 60.36% ±50.24 117 openings

since tracking started · 60.36% ±50.24 117 openings

-0.5% 124.5% 249.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volcanic?window=24h) | 6 | 26.09% ±222.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volcanic?window=7d) | 98 | 55.42% ±54.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volcanic) | 117 | 60.36% ±50.2 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/volcanic?window=all) | 117 | 60.36% ±50.2 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 117 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $38K 54,245 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $14.4K 20,545 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $12K 17,180 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,534 13,620 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,308 10,440 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $4,284 6,120 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 667 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) | 1 in 400 | $4,035 5,765 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 500 | $2,051 2,930 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 182 | $1,757 2,510 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $804 1,148 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 125 | $636 909 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $627 896 coins | 9.1% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $582 832 coins | 6.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 33 | $435 622 coins | 7.6% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $328 468 coins | 7.6% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-foil-atlanta-2017) | 25.0% | $86.80 124 coins | 12.6% | 21 | 29.3 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $68.27 97.53 coins | 11.9% | 43 | 35.1 | 1.23× |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) | 30.0% | $39.78 56.83 coins | 6.9% | 41 | 35.1 | 1.17× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $190 272 coins $1,757 2,510 coins 9.23x 2026-11-04 12:37 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $190 272 coins $849 1,213 coins 4.46x 2026-11-08 02:09 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) Hidden $190 272 coins $611 873 coins 3.21x 2026-11-06 17:21 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) Hidden $190 272 coins $611 873 coins 3.21x 2026-11-05 21:08 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) [560 HP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/560%20HP) $190 272 coins $575 822 coins 3.02x 2026-11-08 02:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=volcanic)

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $189 270 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $189 270 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $189 270 coins $68.27 97.53 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $189 270 coins $68.27 97.53 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $189 270 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) [560 HP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/560%20HP) $189 270 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $189 270 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 0.21x 2026-11-09 21:51 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $189 270 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 0.21x 2026-11-09 21:51 UTC

[AUG | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $189 270 coins $328 468 coins 1.73x 2026-11-09 21:51 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $189 270 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 0.21x 2026-11-09 21:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $189 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $190 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $190 | 90.91% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 0.2% contraband 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 7.5% high 0.3% legendary 2.7% classified 0.3% mil spec 34.0% exotic 25.0% restricted 30.0% best hit $1,757 (9.23x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt