--- title: "Vulture case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vulture ($14.15) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 99.29% over 19.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vulture rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Vulture](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vulture) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Vulture A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vulture?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vulture?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vulture) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vulture?window=all) Price · $14.15 · 20.21 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $12.86 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.29% · 19.5K openings, odds method Variance · 25.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.51% ±18.34 2,855 openings 7 days · 98.90% ±7.45 17.1K openings 30 days · 99.29% ±6.97 19.5K openings since tracking started · 99.29% ±6.97 19.5K openings 67.5% 87.3% 107.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.33% – 106.26%, 19,456 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vulture?window=24h) | 2,855 | 86.51% ±18.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vulture?window=7d) | 17.1K | 98.90% ±7.45 | +2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vulture) | 19.5K | 99.29% ±6.97 | +2.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/vulture?window=all) | 19.5K | 99.29% ±6.97 | +2.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,667 3,810 coins | 1.0% | 5 | 1.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,018 1,454 coins | 4.0% | 10 | 9.7 | 1.03× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $1,008 1,440 coins | 9.8% | 29 | 24.3 | 1.19× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $540 772 coins | 10.5% | 65 | 48.6 | 1.34× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $346 494 coins | 2.0% | 9 | 14.6 | 0.62× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $344 492 coins | 20.1% | 141 | 145.9 | 0.97× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 134 | $274 392 coins | 15.9% | 147 | 144.9 | 1.01× | | [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $180 257 coins | 21.0% | 315 | 291.8 | 1.08× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $134 192 coins | 15.7% | 275 | 291.8 | 0.94× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 47.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 9,179 | 9241.6 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 47.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 9,281 | 9241.6 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Ridwan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ridwan) $14.64 20.91 coins $2,695 3,850 coins 184.1x 2026-11-08 03:09 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $14.64 20.91 coins $2,695 3,850 coins 184.1x 2026-11-07 09:52 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Dizyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dizyy) $14.64 20.91 coins $2,695 3,850 coins 184.1x 2026-11-06 20:58 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $14.64 20.91 coins $2,695 3,850 coins 184.1x 2026-11-05 12:37 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins $2,667 3,810 coins 188.5x 2026-11-09 16:36 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins $1,018 1,454 coins 71.94x 2026-11-10 22:10 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins $1,018 1,454 coins 71.94x 2026-11-10 20:13 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins $1,018 1,454 coins 71.94x 2026-11-09 16:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins $1,008 1,440 coins 71.25x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins $1,008 1,440 coins 71.25x 2026-11-11 02:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=vulture) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $14.15 20.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.15 20.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.15 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.64 | 90.90% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.6% extraordinary 1.7% classified 0.8% consumer 95.0% best hit $2,695 (184.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt