--- title: "Warning case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Warning ($10.70) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 91.40% over 4,198 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warning rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Warning](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warning) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Warning A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warning?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warning?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warning) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warning?window=all) Price · $10.70 · 15.28 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $9.72 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.40% · 4,198 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.66% ±20.51 377 openings 7 days · 90.24% ±6.78 3,466 openings 30 days · 91.40% ±6.16 4,198 openings since tracking started · 91.40% ±6.16 4,198 openings 73.5% 94.8% 116.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warning?window=24h) | 377 | 94.66% ±20.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warning?window=7d) | 3,466 | 90.24% ±6.78 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warning) | 4,198 | 91.40% ±6.16 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warning?window=all) | 4,198 | 91.40% ±6.16 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,198 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $95.20 136 coins | 1.0% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $91.70 131 coins | 4.7% | 17 | 21.0 | 0.81× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $77.00 110 coins | 63.4% | 346 | 335.8 | 1.03× | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $54.19 77.42 coins | 1.7% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $24.88 35.55 coins | 6.4% | 118 | 105.0 | 1.12× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $23.86 34.08 coins | 2.5% | 40 | 42.0 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $12.05 17.21 coins | 5.0% | 153 | 167.9 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) | 12.0% | $5.91 8.44 coins | 7.3% | 517 | 503.8 | 1.03× | | [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $2.19 3.13 coins | 4.5% | 864 | 839.6 | 1.03× | | [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $1.28 1.83 coins | 3.3% | 1,023 | 1049.5 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 26.6% | $0.14 0.2 coins | 0.4% | 1,109 | 1116.7 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=warning) [FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.70 15.28 coins $1.28 1.83 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.70 15.28 coins $2.19 3.13 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.70 15.28 coins $2.19 3.13 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.70 15.28 coins $1.28 1.83 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) [GydeN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/GydeN) $10.70 15.28 coins $1.28 1.83 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) Hidden $10.70 15.28 coins $77.00 110 coins 7.20x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) [DAFREAK72](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DAFREAK72) $10.70 15.28 coins $1.28 1.83 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC [FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.70 15.28 coins $1.28 1.83 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC [FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.70 15.28 coins $1.28 1.83 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) Hidden $10.70 15.28 coins $12.05 17.21 coins 1.13x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $10.70 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.70 | 90.93% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.93 | 90.91% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $10.91 | 90.93% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.91 | 90.92% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% classified 8.0% covert 8.0% industrial 26.9% restricted 57.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt