--- title: "Warrior case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Warrior ($14.08) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 18 items with odds, observed 85.35% over 1,627 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warrior rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Warrior](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warrior) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Warrior A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warrior?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warrior?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warrior) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warrior?window=all) Price · $14.08 · 20.11 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $12.80 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.35% · 1,627 openings, odds method Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.84% ±23.80 271 openings 7 days · 84.36% ±10.19 1,466 openings 30 days · 85.35% ±9.67 1,627 openings since tracking started · 85.35% ±9.67 1,627 openings 53.5% 78.0% 102.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warrior?window=24h) | 271 | 77.84% ±23.8 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warrior?window=7d) | 1,466 | 84.36% ±10.2 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warrior) | 1,627 | 85.35% ±9.67 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warrior?window=all) | 1,627 | 85.35% ±9.67 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,627 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $468 669 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $426 609 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Sticker \| Edward (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-edward-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 769 | $321 459 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-factory-new) | 1 in 385 | $114 163 coins | 2.3% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $111 159 coins | 8.7% | 14 | 16.3 | 0.86× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $98.70 141 coins | 15.4% | 31 | 32.5 | 0.95× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $87.50 125 coins | 5.1% | 17 | 12.2 | 1.39× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $74.90 107 coins | 16.4% | 34 | 45.6 | 0.75× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $43.88 62.69 coins | 15.4% | 85 | 73.2 | 1.16× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $25.12 35.89 coins | 10.8% | 85 | 89.5 | 0.95× | | [Brigadier General Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/brigadier-general-pin) | 1 in 17 | $11.65 16.65 coins | 5.5% | 95 | 97.6 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $11.20 16 coins | 5.7% | 102 | 105.8 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ M249 \| Warbird (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-warbird-factory-new) | 11.0% | $5.46 7.8 coins | 4.7% | 155 | 179.0 | 0.87× | | [Sticker \| Ruby Stream (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream-lenticular) | 1 in 13 | $2.27 3.24 coins | 1.3% | 139 | 122.0 | 1.14× | | [Sticker \| Chinggis Warriors (Holo) \| Austin 2025 sticker · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chinggis-warriors-holo-austin-2025) | 1 in 13 | $1.83 2.61 coins | 1.1% | 140 | 130.2 | 1.08× | | [Sticker \| Chinggis Warriors (Gold) \| Austin 2025 sticker · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chinggis-warriors-gold-austin-2025) | 14.0% | $0.90 1.28 coins | 1.0% | 266 | 227.8 | 1.17× | | [Warhammer 40,000 Imperium Sticker Capsule container · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/warhammer-40-000-imperium-sticker-capsule) | 15.0% | $0.82 1.17 coins | 1.0% | 232 | 244.0 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| War sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-war) | 15.0% | $0.22 0.31 coins | 0.3% | 226 | 244.0 | 0.93× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=warrior) [Warhammer 40,000 Imperium Sticker Capsule container · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/warhammer-40-000-imperium-sticker-capsule) Hidden $14.08 20.11 coins $0.82 1.17 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Sticker | War sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-war) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $14.08 20.11 coins $0.22 0.31 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Sticker | War sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-war) Hidden $14.08 20.11 coins $0.22 0.31 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Stream (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream-lenticular) Hidden $14.08 20.11 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Sticker | Chinggis Warriors (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chinggis-warriors-gold-austin-2025) Hidden $14.08 20.11 coins $0.90 1.28 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [StatTrak™ M249 | Warbird (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-warbird-factory-new) Hidden $14.08 20.11 coins $5.46 7.8 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Sticker | Chinggis Warriors (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chinggis-warriors-gold-austin-2025) Hidden $14.08 20.11 coins $0.90 1.28 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Warhammer 40,000 Imperium Sticker Capsule container · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/warhammer-40-000-imperium-sticker-capsule) Hidden $14.08 20.11 coins $0.82 1.17 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Sticker | Chinggis Warriors (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chinggis-warriors-gold-austin-2025) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $14.08 20.11 coins $0.90 1.28 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Brigadier General Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/brigadier-general-pin) Hidden $14.08 20.11 coins $11.65 16.65 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $14.08 | 90.90% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $14.08 | 90.93% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.09 | 90.92% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.35 | 90.93% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $14.40 | 90.91% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $14.40 | 90.92% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.39 | 90.93% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 5.8% extraordinary 14.6% classified 4.5% restricted 12.0% mil spec 11.0% uncommon 22.0% common 15.0% high 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt