--- title: "Warzone case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Warzone ($179.10) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 96.83% over 246 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warzone rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Warzone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warzone) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Warzone A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warzone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warzone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warzone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warzone?window=all) Price · $179.10 · 256 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $162.82 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.83% · 246 openings, odds method Variance · 11.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 92.27% ±46.10 203 openings 30 days · 96.83% ±41.87 246 openings since tracking started · 96.83% ±41.87 246 openings 45.5% 92.5% 139.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warzone?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warzone?window=7d) | 203 | 92.27% ±46.1 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warzone) | 246 | 96.83% ±41.9 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/warzone?window=all) | 246 | 96.83% ±41.9 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 246 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $5,040 7,200 coins | 31.0% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.63× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2,230 3,185 coins | 13.7% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $1,584 2,263 coins | 9.7% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,369 1,955 coins | 8.4% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 6.5% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,035 1,478 coins | 6.4% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.63× | | [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $619 884 coins | 3.8% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $617 881 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $593 847 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $573 818 coins | 3.5% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $440 628 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $434 620 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $293 419 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $195 278 coins | 1.2% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.63× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $148 211 coins | 0.9% | 7 | 2.5 | 2.85× | | [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $1.02 1.45 coins | 0.1% | 52 | 51.7 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) | 22.0% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 0.1% | 53 | 54.1 | 0.98× | | [M249 \| System Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $0.57 0.81 coins | 0.1% | 50 | 51.7 | 0.97× | | [UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) | 21.0% | $0.46 0.66 coins | 0.1% | 51 | 51.7 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $179 256 coins $5,040 7,200 coins 28.14x 2026-11-09 16:10 UTC [Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) [Robond](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Robond) $182 260 coins $5,040 7,200 coins 27.66x 2026-11-06 23:21 UTC [Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $182 260 coins $5,040 7,200 coins 27.66x 2026-11-04 21:09 UTC [Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $182 260 coins $5,040 7,200 coins 27.66x 2026-11-04 10:30 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $182 260 coins $2,384 3,405 coins 13.08x 2026-11-04 19:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $182 260 coins $1,595 2,278 coins 8.75x 2026-11-04 12:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [🟢LIVE kick/sn0wieTV GIVEAWAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2LIVE%20kick%2Fsn0wieTV%20GIVEAWAY) $179 256 coins $1,584 2,263 coins 8.85x 2026-11-09 15:57 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) Hidden $182 260 coins $1,434 2,049 coins 7.87x 2026-11-04 19:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $182 260 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 5.94x 2026-11-06 11:12 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $182 260 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 5.94x 2026-11-04 10:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=warzone) [USP-S | Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) Hidden $179 256 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC [USP-S | Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) [Falken](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Falken) $179 256 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC [M249 | System Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-minimal-wear) Hidden $179 256 coins $0.57 0.81 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) Hidden $179 256 coins $0.46 0.66 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC [Glock-18 | Catacombs (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-minimal-wear) Hidden $179 256 coins $1.02 1.45 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $179 256 coins $1,058 1,512 coins 5.91x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC [M249 | System Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-minimal-wear) Hidden $179 256 coins $0.57 0.81 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:38 UTC [Glock-18 | Catacombs (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-minimal-wear) Hidden $179 256 coins $1.02 1.45 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:38 UTC [USP-S | Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) Hidden $179 256 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:38 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) Hidden $179 256 coins $0.46 0.66 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $182 | 90.91% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $182 | 90.91% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $182 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $182 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 1.0% extraordinary 1.0% covert 11.0% classified 1.0% epic 1.0% mil spec 85.0% best hit $5,040 (28.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt