--- title: "Wasteland case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Wasteland ($36.11) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 94.91% over 321 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wasteland rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Wasteland](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wasteland) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Wasteland A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wasteland?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wasteland?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wasteland) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wasteland?window=all) Price · $36.11 · 51.59 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $32.83 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.91% · 321 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 23 openings · below min 7 days · 90.45% ±12.19 225 openings 30 days · 94.91% ±10.24 321 openings since tracking started · 94.91% ±10.24 321 openings 77.5% 123.5% 169.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wasteland?window=24h) | 23 | 131.68% ±37.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wasteland?window=7d) | 225 | 90.45% ±12.2 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wasteland) | 321 | 94.91% ±10.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wasteland?window=all) | 321 | 94.91% ±10.2 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 321 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $205 293 coins | 3.1% | 5 | 1.6 | 3.12× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $98.70 141 coins | 33.1% | 31 | 35.3 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $93.10 133 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $79.10 113 coins | 3.6% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $51.82 74.03 coins | 12.6% | 26 | 25.7 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $46.92 67.03 coins | 7.1% | 19 | 16.1 | 1.18× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 18.0% | $45.21 64.58 coins | 24.8% | 63 | 57.8 | 1.09× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $35.64 50.92 coins | 2.2% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.93× | | [MAG-7 \| Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-factory-new) | 22.0% | $17.09 24.41 coins | 11.5% | 65 | 70.6 | 0.92× | | [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 31.9% | $1.78 2.54 coins | 1.7% | 102 | 102.4 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=wasteland) [MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-factory-new) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $17.09 24.41 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $45.21 64.58 coins 1.25x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-well-worn) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $51.82 74.03 coins 1.43x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $36.11 51.59 coins $45.21 64.58 coins 1.25x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $1.78 2.54 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $1.78 2.54 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $1.78 2.54 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) [Pvpbotx](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pvpbotx) $36.11 51.59 coins $1.78 2.54 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $1.78 2.54 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 23:38 UTC [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $1.78 2.54 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 23:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $36.11 | 90.91% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $36.44 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.68 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 13.6% mil spec 1.5% restricted 13.0% classified 18.0% consumer 22.0% industrial 31.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt