--- title: "Wave case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Wave ($28.61) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 11 items with odds, observed 87.68% over 2,367 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wave rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Wave](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wave) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Wave A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wave?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wave?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wave) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wave?window=all) Price · $28.61 · 40.87 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $26.01 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.68% · 2,367 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.58% ±19.95 124 openings 7 days · 88.45% ±4.93 2,052 openings 30 days · 87.68% ±4.60 2,367 openings since tracking started · 87.68% ±4.60 2,367 openings 60.0% 80.5% 101.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wave?window=24h) | 124 | 80.58% ±19.9 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wave?window=7d) | 2,052 | 88.45% ±4.93 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wave) | 2,367 | 87.68% ±4.60 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wave?window=all) | 2,367 | 87.68% ±4.60 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,368 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $402 574 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $287 410 coins | 5.5% | 8 | 11.8 | 0.68× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 333 | $285 407 coins | 3.3% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $100 143 coins | 3.8% | 21 | 23.7 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $84.70 121 coins | 8.1% | 59 | 59.2 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 12.0% | $45.38 64.83 coins | 20.9% | 299 | 284.2 | 1.05× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $43.81 62.59 coins | 6.7% | 92 | 94.7 | 0.97× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $43.41 62.02 coins | 15.0% | 199 | 213.1 | 0.93× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $17.47 24.95 coins | 16.8% | 610 | 592.0 | 1.03× | | [Patch \| Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) | 20.0% | $16.29 23.27 coins | 12.5% | 471 | 473.6 | 0.99× | | [MAC-10 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tornado-minimal-wear) | 25.6% | $5.73 8.18 coins | 5.6% | 602 | 606.2 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=wave) [MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) Hidden $28.61 40.87 coins $45.38 64.83 coins 1.59x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $28.61 40.87 coins $17.47 24.95 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.61 40.87 coins $17.47 24.95 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) Hidden $28.61 40.87 coins $84.70 121 coins 2.96x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) Hidden $28.61 40.87 coins $45.38 64.83 coins 1.59x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) Hidden $28.61 40.87 coins $45.38 64.83 coins 1.59x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) [szoblegyorsan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/szoblegyorsan) $28.61 40.87 coins $17.47 24.95 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Patch | Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) Hidden $28.61 40.87 coins $16.29 23.27 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC [MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) Hidden $28.61 40.87 coins $45.38 64.83 coins 1.59x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC [Patch | Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) [☯♥㊛](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%98%AF%E2%99%A5%E3%8A%9B) $28.61 40.87 coins $16.29 23.27 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $28.61 | 90.90% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $28.62 | 90.92% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.70 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 52.6% covert 1.8% remarkable 20.0% consumer 25.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt