--- title: "Whiffy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Whiffy ($9.21) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 15 items with odds, observed 87.53% over 11.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/whiffy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Whiffy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/whiffy) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Whiffy A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/whiffy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/whiffy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/whiffy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/whiffy?window=all) Price · $9.21 · 13.15 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $8.37 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.53% · 11.2K openings, odds method Variance · 38.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.38% ±32.69 1,363 openings 7 days · 89.71% ±12.46 9,444 openings 30 days · 87.53% ±11.43 11.2K openings since tracking started · 87.53% ±11.43 11.2K openings 50.0% 83.3% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/whiffy?window=24h) | 1,363 | 83.38% ±32.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/whiffy?window=7d) | 9,444 | 89.71% ±12.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/whiffy) | 11.2K | 87.53% ±11.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/whiffy?window=all) | 11.2K | 87.53% ±11.4 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,184 3,120 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,069 2,955 coins | 7.4% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,042 1,489 coins | 7.5% | 9 | 6.7 | 1.33× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $592 846 coins | 7.1% | 7 | 11.2 | 0.62× | | [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $277 395 coins | 6.6% | 19 | 22.5 | 0.85× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $192 274 coins | 6.9% | 36 | 33.7 | 1.07× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $160 229 coins | 9.6% | 38 | 56.2 | 0.68× | | [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $92.40 132 coins | 8.8% | 96 | 89.9 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $64.17 91.67 coins | 7.7% | 114 | 112.4 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $27.53 39.33 coins | 6.6% | 234 | 224.8 | 1.04× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 19.0% | $3.18 4.55 coins | 7.2% | 2,152 | 2136.0 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 19.0% | $3.11 4.44 coins | 7.1% | 2,100 | 2136.0 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 19.0% | $3.00 4.29 coins | 6.8% | 2,114 | 2136.0 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) | 19.0% | $1.96 2.8 coins | 4.4% | 2,143 | 2136.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-battle-scarred) | 19.0% | $1.65 2.35 coins | 3.7% | 2,176 | 2136.0 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Negev | Mjölnir (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-field-tested) Hidden $9.18 13.11 coins $2,212 3,160 coins 241.0x 2026-11-06 17:37 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $2,069 2,955 coins 224.7x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) [mickarmement100k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mickarmement100k) $9.21 13.16 coins $2,069 2,955 coins 224.5x 2026-11-08 22:41 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.18 13.11 coins $2,058 2,940 coins 224.3x 2026-11-06 10:12 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $9.16 13.08 coins $1,068 1,526 coins 116.7x 2026-11-08 15:07 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) [Pingu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pingu) $9.18 13.11 coins $1,068 1,526 coins 116.4x 2026-11-07 16:06 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) [Rekah csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rekah%20csgoroll.com) $9.18 13.11 coins $1,068 1,526 coins 116.4x 2026-11-07 10:21 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) [I'm the best bird](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I'm%20the%20best%20bird) $9.18 13.11 coins $1,068 1,526 coins 116.4x 2026-11-07 01:17 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $9.18 13.11 coins $1,068 1,526 coins 116.4x 2026-11-07 00:30 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $9.18 13.11 coins $1,068 1,526 coins 116.4x 2026-11-06 17:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=whiffy) [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $9.21 13.15 coins $3.00 4.29 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $1.65 2.35 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $1.96 2.8 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $1.96 2.8 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $3.18 4.55 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $1.65 2.35 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $1.65 2.35 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $1.96 2.8 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $9.21 13.15 coins $3.00 4.29 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $1.96 2.8 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $9.21 | 90.92% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.21 | 90.89% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.21 | 90.92% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $9.16 | 90.89% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $9.18 | 90.89% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.20 | 90.94% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 19.7% restricted 40.1% epic 0.1% mil spec 0.3% rare 0.8% covert 1.0% milspec 19.0% Classified 19.0% best hit $2,212 (241.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt