---
title: "Wicked case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Wicked ($37.07) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 88.29% over 3,212 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wicked
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Wicked](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wicked)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Wicked

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wicked?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wicked?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wicked) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wicked?window=all)

Price · $37.07 · 52.96 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $33.70 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.29% · 3,212 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.93% ±17.08 320 openings

7 days · 87.20% ±5.98 2,680 openings

30 days · 88.29% ±5.47 3,212 openings

since tracking started · 88.29% ±5.47 3,212 openings

69.0% 86.8% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wicked?window=24h) | 320 | 86.93% ±17.1 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wicked?window=7d) | 2,680 | 87.20% ±5.98 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wicked) | 3,212 | 88.29% ±5.47 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/wicked?window=all) | 3,212 | 88.29% ±5.47 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,218 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,269 8,955 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $563 804 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $337 482 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $246 352 coins | 0.7% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $117 167 coins | 10.4% | 87 | 96.5 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 10.0% | $113 161 coins | 33.4% | 319 | 321.8 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $78.40 112 coins | 7.0% | 88 | 96.5 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 10.0% | $53.33 76.19 coins | 15.8% | 338 | 321.8 | 1.05× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $42.35 60.5 coins | 6.3% | 176 | 160.9 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 10.0% | $28.87 41.25 coins | 8.6% | 307 | 321.8 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 10.8% | $12.48 17.83 coins | 4.0% | 348 | 348.8 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 15.0% | $11.44 16.34 coins | 5.1% | 450 | 482.7 | 0.93× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $9.44 13.48 coins | 4.2% | 502 | 482.7 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $5.52 7.89 coins | 2.9% | 601 | 579.2 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=wicked)

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) [Fuldasgamer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fuldasgamer) $37.07 52.96 coins $113 161 coins 3.04x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.07 52.96 coins $9.44 13.48 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [Black Ape](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Black%20Ape) $37.07 52.96 coins $12.48 17.83 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $37.07 52.96 coins $113 161 coins 3.04x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [invisibility](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/invisibility) $37.07 52.96 coins $5.52 7.89 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $37.07 52.96 coins $11.44 16.34 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $37.07 52.96 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 1.44x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $37.07 52.96 coins $5.52 7.89 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) Hidden $37.07 52.96 coins $12.48 17.83 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) Hidden $37.07 52.96 coins $12.48 17.83 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $37.07 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $36.91 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.30 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 38.1% legendary 0.1% classified 43.8% restricted 18.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt