--- title: "Winter 2021 case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Winter 2021 ($134.67) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 99.28% over 34 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/winter-2021 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Winter 2021](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/winter-2021) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Winter 2021 A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/winter-2021?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/winter-2021?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/winter-2021) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/winter-2021?window=all) Price · $134.67 · 192 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $122.42 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.28% · 34 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 21 openings · below min 30 days · 34 openings · below min since tracking started · 34 openings · below min 53.0% 97.3% 141.5% **Small sample.** 34 openings and 12.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/winter-2021?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/winter-2021?window=7d) | 21 | 97.22% ±43.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/winter-2021) | 34 | 99.28% ±34.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/winter-2021?window=all) | 34 | 99.28% ±34.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50,000 | $3,136 4,480 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,244 3,205 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,724 2,463 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,544 2,206 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $566 808 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $493 705 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $446 637 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 286 | $427 610 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 83 | $300 429 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 67 | $267 382 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) | 12.0% | $255 365 coins | 25.0% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.23× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $227 324 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $197 281 coins | 28.9% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $180 257 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $115 164 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $93.80 134 coins | 5.4% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $58.25 83.21 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $48.43 69.18 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $46.07 65.82 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 20.0% | $31.18 44.55 coins | 5.1% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.32× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 23.4% | $24.88 35.55 coins | 4.8% | 7 | 8.0 | 0.88× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) [tengi1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tengi1) $135 193 coins $564 806 coins 4.18x 2026-11-03 20:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $135 193 coins $511 730 coins 3.79x 2026-11-05 18:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=winter-2021) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $135 193 coins $33.57 47.95 coins 0.25x 2026-11-06 18:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) Hidden $135 193 coins $24.42 34.89 coins 0.18x 2026-11-06 18:38 UTC [Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $135 193 coins $250 357 coins 1.85x 2026-11-06 18:38 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $135 193 coins $33.57 47.95 coins 0.25x 2026-11-06 18:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) Hidden $135 193 coins $24.42 34.89 coins 0.18x 2026-11-06 18:36 UTC [Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $135 193 coins $250 357 coins 1.85x 2026-11-06 18:36 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $135 193 coins $33.57 47.95 coins 0.25x 2026-11-06 15:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $135 193 coins $197 282 coins 1.46x 2026-11-06 15:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) Hidden $135 193 coins $24.42 34.89 coins 0.18x 2026-11-06 15:06 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $135 193 coins $33.57 47.95 coins 0.25x 2026-11-06 15:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $135 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $135 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $135 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.0% extraordinary 1.0% covert 18.3% legendary 0.1% classified 61.7% restricted 19.0% best hit $564 (4.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt