--- title: "Yolo case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Yolo ($61.93) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 101.81% over 2,330 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/yolo rendered: 2026-11-11T14:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Yolo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/yolo) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Yolo A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/yolo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/yolo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/yolo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/yolo?window=all) Price · $61.93 · 88.47 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $56.30 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.81% · 2,330 openings, odds method Variance · 14.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 135.31% ±58.03 164 openings 7 days · 97.49% ±20.48 1,318 openings 30 days · 101.81% ±15.41 2,330 openings since tracking started · 101.81% ±15.41 2,330 openings 76.5% 135.3% 194.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/yolo?window=24h) | 164 | 135.31% ±58.0 | +1.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/yolo?window=7d) | 1,318 | 97.49% ±20.5 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/yolo) | 2,330 | 101.81% ±15.4 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/yolo?window=all) | 2,330 | 101.81% ±15.4 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,330 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $4,277 6,110 coins | 19.0% | 10 | 5.8 | 1.72× | | [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $535 764 coins | 14.2% | 36 | 34.9 | 1.03× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $190 271 coins | 6.7% | 43 | 46.6 | 0.92× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $179 256 coins | 25.5% | 189 | 186.4 | 1.01× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $163 233 coins | 8.7% | 63 | 69.9 | 0.90× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $74.20 106 coins | 6.6% | 115 | 116.5 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) | 13.0% | $39.56 56.52 coins | 9.1% | 294 | 302.9 | 0.97× | | [P90 \| Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) | 17.2% | $29.62 42.31 coins | 9.1% | 423 | 401.7 | 1.05× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 540 | 582.5 | 0.93× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 617 | 582.5 | 1.06× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins $4,277 6,110 coins 69.06x 2026-11-11 01:43 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins $4,277 6,110 coins 69.06x 2026-11-09 03:56 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins $4,277 6,110 coins 69.06x 2026-11-09 02:46 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins $4,277 6,110 coins 69.06x 2026-11-09 02:43 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $61.94 88.48 coins $4,270 6,100 coins 68.94x 2026-11-03 11:49 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $61.94 88.48 coins $4,270 6,100 coins 68.94x 2026-11-03 10:49 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $61.94 88.48 coins $4,270 6,100 coins 68.94x 2026-11-03 10:09 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $61.94 88.48 coins $4,270 6,100 coins 68.94x 2026-11-03 10:09 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $61.94 88.48 coins $4,270 6,100 coins 68.94x 2026-11-03 09:21 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $61.94 88.48 coins $4,270 6,100 coins 68.94x 2026-11-03 09:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=yolo) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:47 UTC [P90 | Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $61.93 88.47 coins $29.62 42.31 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 01:47 UTC [P90 | Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins $29.62 42.31 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 01:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:47 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-field-tested) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $61.93 88.47 coins $74.20 106 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 01:47 UTC [P90 | Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins $29.62 42.31 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 01:47 UTC [P90 | Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $61.93 88.47 coins $29.62 42.31 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC [P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins $39.56 56.52 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins $163 233 coins 2.63x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $61.93 88.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $61.93 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $61.26 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $61.94 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.5% contraband 0.3% classified 10.0% restricted 13.0% mil spec 17.2% consumer 50.0% best hit $4,277 (69.06x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt