--- title: "Zodiac case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Zodiac ($8.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 17 items with odds, observed 91.14% over 2,061 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/zodiac rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Zodiac](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/zodiac) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Zodiac A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/zodiac?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/zodiac?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/zodiac) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/zodiac?window=all) Price · $8.09 · 11.56 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $7.36 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.14% · 2,061 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.26% ±11.10 183 openings 7 days · 91.06% ±3.51 1,837 openings 30 days · 91.14% ±3.31 2,061 openings since tracking started · 91.14% ±3.31 2,061 openings 76.5% 88.3% 100.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/zodiac?window=24h) | 183 | 88.26% ±11.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/zodiac?window=7d) | 1,837 | 91.06% ±3.51 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/zodiac) | 2,061 | 91.14% ±3.31 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/zodiac?window=all) | 2,061 | 91.14% ±3.31 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,061 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $76.30 109 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.94× | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $67.59 96.55 coins | 0.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.62× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $48.19 68.84 coins | 3.3% | 12 | 10.3 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 2.7% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $27.04 38.63 coins | 3.7% | 20 | 20.6 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 127 | $26.75 38.21 coins | 2.9% | 16 | 16.3 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $26.62 38.03 coins | 4.0% | 19 | 22.7 | 0.84× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $23.12 33.03 coins | 3.1% | 25 | 20.6 | 1.21× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $18.82 26.88 coins | 3.8% | 27 | 30.9 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 11.8% | $9.19 13.13 coins | 14.7% | 221 | 243.2 | 0.91× | | [Tec-9 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tornado-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $7.91 11.3 coins | 16.1% | 309 | 309.1 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $6.30 9 coins | 12.8% | 322 | 309.1 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| Basilisk (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-basilisk-foil) | 15.5% | $5.60 8 coins | 11.8% | 312 | 319.5 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Eternal Fire (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eternal-fire-holo-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 28 | $4.97 7.1 coins | 2.4% | 86 | 74.2 | 1.16× | | [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $4.37 6.24 coins | 1.0% | 38 | 33.0 | 1.15× | | [MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 15.5% | $4.14 5.91 coins | 8.7% | 323 | 319.5 | 1.01× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) | 15.5% | $3.72 5.32 coins | 7.8% | 317 | 319.5 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=zodiac) [Nova | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.09 11.56 coins $3.72 5.32 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.09 11.56 coins $4.14 5.91 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC [Sticker | Basilisk (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-basilisk-foil) [steffyow;D](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/steffyow%3BD) $8.09 11.56 coins $5.60 8 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.09 11.56 coins $4.14 5.91 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.09 11.56 coins $3.72 5.32 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.09 11.56 coins $6.30 9 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.09 11.56 coins $6.30 9 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC [Sticker | Basilisk (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-basilisk-foil) [steffyow;D](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/steffyow%3BD) $8.09 11.56 coins $5.60 8 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.09 11.56 coins $4.14 5.91 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.09 11.56 coins $3.72 5.32 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $8.09 | 90.89% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.09 | 90.92% | 17 | | 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $8.39 | 90.91% | 17 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $8.39 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.39 | 90.92% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% classified 18.7% red 0.8% Legendary 1.0% Classified 11.8% consumer 30.5% exotic 19.1% uncommon 1.6% Mythical 15.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt