---
title: "Ace case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ace ($0.27) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.96% from 42 items with odds, observed 94.29% over 9,103 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ace
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Ace](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ace)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Ace

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ace?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ace?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ace) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ace?window=all)

Price · $0.27

Advertised RTP · 92.96% · EV $0.25 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.29% · 9,103 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.18% ±24.82 281 openings

7 days · 93.09% ±5.07 6,741 openings

30 days · 94.29% ±4.38 9,103 openings

since tracking started · 94.29% ±4.38 9,103 openings

72.5% 98.0% 123.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ace?window=24h) | 281 | 98.18% ±24.8 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ace?window=7d) | 6,741 | 93.09% ±5.07 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ace) | 9,103 | 94.29% ±4.38 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ace?window=all) | 9,103 | 94.29% ±4.38 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,104 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $297 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $236 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $180 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $98.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $76.11 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $58.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-well-worn) | 1 in 500,000 | $55.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 35,714 | $10.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $9.42 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 13,158 | $6.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 9,434 | $6.27 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 3,861 | $4.38 | 0.5% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.12× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-well-worn) | 1 in 3,597 | $4.29 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,175 | $2.81 | 1.0% | 11 | 7.7 | 1.42× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 932 | $2.56 | 1.1% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.82× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 691 | $2.38 | 1.4% | 8 | 13.2 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 512 | $2.04 | 1.6% | 17 | 17.8 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-factory-new) | 1 in 364 | $1.86 | 2.0% | 16 | 25.0 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 354 | $1.85 | 2.1% | 34 | 25.7 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 451 | $1.81 | 1.6% | 22 | 20.2 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $1.35 | 3.2% | 56 | 54.4 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 138 | $1.18 | 3.4% | 76 | 65.9 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $1.02 | 4.1% | 84 | 91.6 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $0.81 | 4.8% | 136 | 135.6 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.72 | 5.7% | 200 | 180.9 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $0.63 | 4.9% | 189 | 176.6 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.58 | 5.2% | 211 | 205.1 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.51 | 6.1% | 303 | 273.2 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.48 | 5.4% | 230 | 256.9 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.41 | 6.2% | 386 | 346.0 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.33 | 7.9% | 579 | 548.2 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.21 | 6.8% | 676 | 737.1 | 0.92× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.20 | 6.2% | 691 | 703.1 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) | 1 in 13 | $0.14 | 4.2% | 675 | 682.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.14 | 4.2% | 718 | 682.0 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.10 | 2.8% | 693 | 647.1 | 1.07× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.08 | 2.2% | 635 | 624.9 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.08 | 2.2% | 578 | 624.9 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.03 | 0.7% | 474 | 503.1 | 0.94× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.03 | 0.7% | 528 | 536.0 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Vitality \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-shanghai-2024) | 1 in 20 | $0.01 | 0.2% | 445 | 451.4 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Vitality \| Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-paris-2023) | 1 in 20 | $0.01 | 0.2% | 417 | 451.4 | 0.92× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/ace/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=ace)

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.27 $0.08 0.30x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.27 $0.10 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.27 $0.63 2.33x 2026-11-11 11:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) [Mr.Morkovkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Morkovkin) $0.27 $1.18 4.37x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) [Escroc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Escroc) $0.27 $1.35 5.00x 2026-11-11 05:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) [Escroc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Escroc) $0.27 $0.41 1.52x 2026-11-11 05:39 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-minimal-wear) [Escroc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Escroc) $0.27 $0.33 1.22x 2026-11-11 05:39 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) [Escroc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Escroc) $0.27 $0.10 0.37x 2026-11-11 05:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) [Escroc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Escroc) $0.27 $1.81 6.70x 2026-11-11 05:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Escroc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Escroc) $0.27 $0.08 0.30x 2026-11-11 05:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.27 | 92.96% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.27 | 92.85% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% rare 0.0% gold 0.0% red 0.0% classified 0.2% restricted 5.1% Legendary 0.0% pink 7.7% violet 4.7% #4b69ff 11.4% blue 15.1% Mythical 3.1% milspec 1.9% #8847ff 2.3% Rare 15.9% Uncommon 14.4% Mil Spec Grade 6.9% light blue 5.5% #5e98d9 5.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.96 on average: an expected loss of $7.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt