---
title: "Achroma case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Achroma ($0.89) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 22 items with odds, observed 85.06% over 216 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/achroma
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Achroma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/achroma)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Achroma

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/achroma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/achroma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/achroma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/achroma?window=all)

Price · $0.89

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $0.82 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.06% · 216 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 18 openings · below min

7 days · 85.06% ±19.22 216 openings

30 days · 85.06% ±19.22 216 openings

since tracking started · 85.06% ±19.22 216 openings

10.5% 77.5% 144.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/achroma?window=24h) | 18 | 77.53% ±66.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/achroma?window=7d) | 216 | 85.06% ±19.2 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/achroma) | 216 | 85.06% ±19.2 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/achroma?window=all) | 216 | 85.06% ±19.2 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 337 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) | 1 in 6,494 | $46.47 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,094 | $16.73 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 428 | $10.20 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-factory-new) | 1 in 249 | $8.03 | 3.9% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $5.16 | 7.6% | 4 | 4.0 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $4.20 | 8.3% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.24 | 9.2% | 19 | 11.4 | 1.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.75 | 10.4% | 12 | 16.4 | 0.73× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) | 10.2% | $0.98 | 12.2% | 39 | 34.4 | 1.13× |
| [AUG \| Creep (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-factory-new) | 10.3% | $0.84 | 10.6% | 47 | 34.9 | 1.35× |
| [P2000 \| Grip Tape (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grip-tape-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.67 | 7.2% | 18 | 29.8 | 0.60× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.62 | 6.9% | 32 | 30.6 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.56 | 5.8% | 27 | 28.4 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Creep (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.33 | 2.3% | 26 | 19.5 | 1.34× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.33 | 2.4% | 20 | 20.2 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Grip Tape (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grip-tape-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.30 | 2.1% | 16 | 19.1 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.29 | 1.9% | 8 | 18.4 | 0.43× |
| [M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.18 | 0.9% | 20 | 14.0 | 1.43× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 0.8% | 11 | 13.1 | 0.84× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.16 | 0.7% | 11 | 12.6 | 0.87× |
| [FAMAS \| Vendetta (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-vendetta-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $0.12 | 0.5% | 7 | 11.1 | 0.63× |
| [MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-snow-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $0.12 | 0.5% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.17× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/achroma/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=achroma)

[P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $0.89 $0.56 0.63x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-snow-splash-factory-new) [sh1rox\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sh1rox%60) $0.89 $0.12 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:47 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-field-tested) [彡りKANAPり彡](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E5%BD%A1%E3%82%8AKANAP%E3%82%8A%E5%BD%A1) $0.89 $0.17 0.19x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC

[P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grip-tape-factory-new) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.89 $0.67 0.75x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-factory-new) [Александр Зенков](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%20%D0%97%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.89 $0.62 0.70x 2026-11-11 05:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) [Heзабываemый](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/He%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B1%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0em%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.89 $2.24 2.52x 2026-11-11 04:35 UTC

[AUG | Creep (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-factory-new) [🤑Roy run🤑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9F%A4%91Roy%20run%F0%9F%A4%91) $0.89 $0.84 0.94x 2026-11-10 20:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-factory-new) [🤑Roy run🤑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9F%A4%91Roy%20run%F0%9F%A4%91) $0.89 $0.62 0.70x 2026-11-10 20:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [🤑Roy run🤑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9F%A4%91Roy%20run%F0%9F%A4%91) $0.89 $1.75 1.97x 2026-11-10 20:04 UTC

[AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-minimal-wear) [🤑Roy run🤑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9F%A4%91Roy%20run%F0%9F%A4%91) $0.89 $0.33 0.37x 2026-11-10 20:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.89 | 92.00% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.89 | 94.00% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Legendary 0.0% pink 0.3% Mythical 8.1% #8847ff 13.6% #4b69ff 28.3% Rare 25.9% milspec 9.3% Uncommon 14.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt