--- title: "Agi case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Agi ($415.46) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 17 items with odds, observed 89.26% over 101 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/agi rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Agi](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/agi) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Agi A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/agi?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/agi?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/agi) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/agi?window=all) Price · $415.46 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $390.53 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.26% · 101 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 48.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 21 openings · below min 30 days · 89.26% ±17.82 101 openings since tracking started · 89.26% ±17.82 101 openings 32.0% 71.5% 111.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/agi?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/agi?window=7d) | 21 | 71.58% ±38.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/agi) | 101 | 89.26% ±17.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/agi?window=all) | 101 | 89.26% ±17.8 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 101 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,870 | $13.1K | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 350 | $3,399 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $2,208 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $1,637 | 6.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.37× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1,078 | 8.6% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.95× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $911 | 8.5% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $642 | 11.1% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 10.7% | $488 | 13.3% | 11 | 10.8 | 1.02× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 11.3% | $461 | 13.4% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 13.0% | $416 | 13.8% | 21 | 13.1 | 1.60× | | [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $172 | 3.7% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.05× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $169 | 4.0% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.06× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $145 | 2.9% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $137 | 2.6% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $133 | 2.5% | 4 | 7.5 | 0.53× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $85.41 | 1.3% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.51× | | [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $19.91 | 0.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.49× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/agi/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $436 $1,668 3.82x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $436 $1,668 3.82x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $436 $1,114 2.55x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $436 $1,114 2.55x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $436 $1,114 2.55x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $436 $952 2.18x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $436 $952 2.18x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $436 $952 2.18x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [босс яндекс игр](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%20%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%20%D0%B8%D0%B3%D1%80) $436 $911 2.09x 2026-11-05 00:25 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $436 $649 1.49x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=agi) [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $436 $416 0.95x 2026-11-05 16:28 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $436 $416 0.95x 2026-11-05 16:27 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $436 $145 0.33x 2026-11-05 16:27 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $436 $488 1.12x 2026-11-05 16:27 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) [босс яндекс игр](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%20%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%20%D0%B8%D0%B3%D1%80) $436 $488 1.12x 2026-11-05 00:46 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) [босс яндекс игр](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%20%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%20%D0%B8%D0%B3%D1%80) $436 $145 0.33x 2026-11-05 00:26 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [босс яндекс игр](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%20%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%20%D0%B8%D0%B3%D1%80) $436 $911 2.09x 2026-11-05 00:25 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [босс яндекс игр](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%20%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%20%D0%B8%D0%B3%D1%80) $436 $416 0.95x 2026-11-05 00:25 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $436 $137 0.32x 2026-11-04 22:52 UTC [M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $436 $169 0.39x 2026-11-04 22:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $415 | 94.00% | 17 | | 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $436 | 89.53% | 17 | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $436 | 92.19% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 33.2% legendary 10.9% #ffd700 1.4% sunny 28.0% epic 8.5% extraordinary 15.4% rare 2.7% best hit $1,668 (3.82x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt