--- title: "Ak 47 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ak 47 ($2.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.46% from 36 items with odds, observed 97.68% over 1,073 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ak47 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Ak 47](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ak47) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Ak 47 A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ak47?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ak47?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ak47) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ak47?window=all) Price · $2.99 Advertised RTP · 93.46% · EV $2.79 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.68% · 1,073 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 102.86% ±6.61 613 openings 7 days · 97.68% ±5.00 1,073 openings 30 days · 97.68% ±5.00 1,073 openings since tracking started · 97.68% ±5.00 1,073 openings 92.0% 101.0% 110.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ak47?window=24h) | 613 | 102.86% ±6.61 | +2.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ak47?window=7d) | 1,073 | 97.68% ±5.00 | +1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ak47) | 1,073 | 97.68% ±5.00 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ak47?window=all) | 1,073 | 97.68% ±5.00 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,189 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $726 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $269 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $200 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $140 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $99.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 24,390 | $68.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 8,621 | $49.48 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 4,484 | $39.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,764 | $28.39 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 634 | $21.93 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 337 | $16.19 | 1.7% | 7 | 3.5 | 1.98× | | [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $11.94 | 2.4% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.37× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $9.52 | 2.6% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $8.28 | 3.8% | 15 | 15.3 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $6.79 | 4.5% | 20 | 22.0 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $5.45 | 5.3% | 33 | 32.1 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $4.20 | 6.5% | 53 | 51.2 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $4.16 | 7.2% | 81 | 57.6 | 1.41× | | [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.59 | 7.4% | 75 | 68.3 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.55 | 7.5% | 76 | 70.5 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $3.07 | 9.2% | 81 | 99.2 | 0.82× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.90 | 4.4% | 64 | 50.0 | 1.28× | | [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.71 | 4.1% | 58 | 50.0 | 1.16× | | [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.70 | 4.1% | 64 | 50.0 | 1.28× | | [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.55 | 3.8% | 59 | 50.0 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.24 | 3.4% | 42 | 50.0 | 0.84× | | [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.01 | 3.0% | 40 | 50.0 | 0.80× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.92 | 2.9% | 45 | 50.0 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.91 | 2.9% | 43 | 50.0 | 0.86× | | [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.74 | 2.6% | 53 | 50.0 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.69 | 2.5% | 54 | 50.0 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.47 | 2.2% | 47 | 50.0 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.85 | 1.3% | 39 | 50.0 | 0.78× | | [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.60 | 0.9% | 49 | 50.0 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.51 | 0.8% | 34 | 50.0 | 0.68× | | [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.35 | 0.5% | 39 | 50.0 | 0.78× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/ak47/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=ak47) [AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $2.99 $3.07 1.03x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-minimal-wear) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $2.99 $4.20 1.40x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $2.99 $1.74 0.58x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $2.99 $2.55 0.85x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [AK-47 | Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $2.99 $1.91 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $1.47 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [AK-47 | Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $3.59 1.20x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $6.79 2.27x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $0.85 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $6.79 2.27x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.99 | 93.46% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.99 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% restricted 9.9% mil spec 4.2% classified 0.2% pink 0.3% industrial 5.1% Legendary 1.3% Mythical 12.7% #4b69ff 10.0% blue 18.6% milspec 8.3% Rare 21.0% #8847ff 4.2% #5e98d9 4.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.46 on average: an expected loss of $6.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt