---
title: "Akulich case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Akulich ($1.69) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.24% from 42 items with odds, observed 93.60% over 1,369 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/akulich
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Akulich](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/akulich)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Akulich

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/akulich?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/akulich?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/akulich) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/akulich?window=all)

Price · $1.69

Advertised RTP · 94.24% · EV $1.59 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.60% · 1,369 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.28% ±9.76 201 openings

7 days · 93.39% ±4.05 1,165 openings

30 days · 93.60% ±3.77 1,369 openings

since tracking started · 93.60% ±3.77 1,369 openings

82.0% 92.2% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/akulich?window=24h) | 201 | 92.28% ±9.76 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/akulich?window=7d) | 1,165 | 93.39% ±4.05 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/akulich) | 1,369 | 93.60% ±3.77 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/akulich?window=all) | 1,369 | 93.60% ±3.77 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,369 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $86.78 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $62.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $58.81 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $37.62 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $28.04 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $20.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,197 | $17.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 2,994 | $13.90 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 1,110 | $10.47 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 638 | $8.92 | 0.9% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 362 | $6.59 | 1.1% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 1 in 229 | $5.76 | 1.6% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 138 | $4.45 | 2.0% | 9 | 9.9 | 0.90× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $3.67 | 2.4% | 7 | 14.0 | 0.50× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $3.59 | 6.3% | 35 | 38.4 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $3.12 | 2.9% | 18 | 20.4 | 0.88× |
| [MAG-7 \| Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $3.11 | 12.3% | 91 | 86.4 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $3.01 | 3.6% | 27 | 25.8 | 1.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-azure-glyph-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $2.37 | 6.1% | 51 | 56.6 | 0.90× |
| [AUG \| Navy Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.23 | 6.9% | 78 | 67.0 | 1.16× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.99 | 6.7% | 88 | 73.3 | 1.20× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.98 | 5.2% | 63 | 57.2 | 1.10× |
| [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.96 | 9.6% | 119 | 107.1 | 1.11× |
| [P90 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.76 | 9.2% | 112 | 114.5 | 0.98× |
| [M249 \| Deep Relief (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-deep-relief-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $1.51 | 2.7% | 40 | 39.1 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $1.43 | 2.6% | 37 | 38.9 | 0.95× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $1.29 | 2.3% | 32 | 39.0 | 0.82× |
| [MAG-7 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $1.00 | 1.8% | 38 | 38.6 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $0.87 | 1.5% | 39 | 38.5 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.83 | 1.5% | 41 | 38.6 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $0.82 | 1.4% | 39 | 38.3 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $0.69 | 1.2% | 33 | 38.2 | 0.86× |
| [MP9 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.60 | 1.0% | 42 | 38.1 | 1.10× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.56 | 1.0% | 29 | 37.8 | 0.77× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.49 | 0.8% | 31 | 37.7 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $0.48 | 0.8% | 36 | 37.9 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.44 | 0.8% | 37 | 37.6 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $0.33 | 0.6% | 43 | 37.5 | 1.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $0.31 | 0.5% | 40 | 37.3 | 1.07× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.30 | 0.5% | 35 | 37.2 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.29 | 0.5% | 42 | 37.1 | 1.13× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $0.25 | 0.4% | 30 | 37.0 | 0.81× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/akulich/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=akulich)

[Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $1.69 $4.45 2.63x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-storm-minimal-wear) [Бобр жора](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%80%20%D0%B6%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0) $1.69 $3.59 2.12x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $1.69 $0.48 0.28x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $1.69 $1.29 0.76x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $1.69 $0.56 0.33x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC

[XM1014 | Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.69 $1.43 0.85x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

[P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.69 $1.76 1.04x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

[P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.69 $1.76 1.04x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.69 $1.99 1.18x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

[MAC-10 | Surfwood (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-minimal-wear) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $1.69 $3.12 1.85x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.69 | 94.24% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.69 | 98.19% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 2.8% covert 0.0% industrial 0.0% restricted 5.7% Mil Spec 0.0% mil spec 29.0% pink 0.3% Common 18.5% consumer 7.1% blueLight 4.1% #777777 4.9% Rare 8.4% uncommon 5.5% Consumer Grade 2.8% #4b69ff 2.8% blue 2.7% Uncommon 2.7% milspec 2.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.24 on average: an expected loss of $5.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt