---
title: "Ancient c case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ancient c ($12.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.51% from 38 items with odds, observed 70.07% over 58 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ancient-c
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Ancient c](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ancient-c)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Ancient c

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ancient-c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ancient-c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ancient-c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ancient-c?window=all)

Price · $12.99

Advertised RTP · 94.51% · EV $12.28 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 70.07% · 58 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 58 openings · below min

30 days · 58 openings · below min

since tracking started · 58 openings · below min

53.5% 74.3% 95.0%

**Small sample.** 58 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ancient-c?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ancient-c?window=7d) | 58 | 70.07% ±16.0 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ancient-c) | 58 | 70.07% ±16.0 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ancient-c?window=all) | 58 | 70.07% ±16.0 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $1,513 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,177 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 55,556 | $767 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 11,765 | $307 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) | 1 in 7,519 | $259 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,952 | $240 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Minimal Wear) weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,915 | $178 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 1,934 | $155 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 962 | $130 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $58.28 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $43.02 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $41.62 | 3.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $39.77 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $33.70 | 4.7% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $32.21 | 4.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $32.11 | 6.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $30.62 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $25.99 | 6.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $23.22 | 5.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $20.23 | 6.8% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $16.17 | 10.5% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.51× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $10.51 | 3.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $10.41 | 3.5% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.26× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $9.86 | 3.3% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.68× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $8.26 | 2.8% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.26× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $7.81 | 2.6% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.26× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $7.54 | 2.5% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $7.13 | 2.4% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.26× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $7.05 | 2.4% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $5.43 | 1.8% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $3.83 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.65 | 1.2% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.10× |
| [MP7 \| Tall Grass (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $3.39 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $2.98 | 1.0% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.10× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.95 | 1.0% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Tall Grass (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.56 | 0.9% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.10× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.00 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.83 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.26× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/ancient_c/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=ancient-c)

[Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) [Soul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Soul) $12.99 $7.81 0.60x 2026-11-09 07:13 UTC

[Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $12.99 $7.13 0.55x 2026-11-07 19:26 UTC

[FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-field-tested) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $12.99 $10.41 0.80x 2026-11-07 19:26 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $12.99 $44.19 3.40x 2026-11-05 20:10 UTC

[Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $12.99 $3.58 0.28x 2026-11-05 20:10 UTC

[Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $12.99 $8.12 0.63x 2026-11-05 20:10 UTC

[Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $12.99 $4.37 0.34x 2026-11-05 20:10 UTC

[Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $12.99 $7.82 0.60x 2026-11-05 20:10 UTC

[FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $12.99 $11.32 0.87x 2026-11-05 20:10 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $12.99 $2.00 0.15x 2026-11-05 20:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $12.99 | 94.51% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $12.99 | 94.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.0% SMGs 0.0% pink 0.2% restricted 3.6% Rare 5.2% Restricted 10.1% #8847ff 5.5% Mil Spec Grade 5.8% consumer 12.1% mil spec 8.2% #4b69ff 12.3% blue 4.1% #87c7ff 8.2% milspec 4.1% industrial 12.3% blueLight 4.1% light blue 4.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.51 on average: an expected loss of $5.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt