---
title: "Armcase case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Armcase ($0.44) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.36% from 42 items with odds, observed 86.02% over 1,093 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armcase
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Armcase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armcase)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Armcase

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armcase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armcase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armcase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armcase?window=all)

Price · $0.44

Advertised RTP · 93.36% · EV $0.41 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.02% · 1,093 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 86.32% ±18.42 656 openings

30 days · 86.02% ±14.58 1,093 openings

since tracking started · 86.02% ±14.58 1,093 openings

67.5% 86.5% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armcase?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armcase?window=7d) | 656 | 86.32% ±18.4 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armcase) | 1,093 | 86.02% ±14.6 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armcase?window=all) | 1,093 | 86.02% ±14.6 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,093 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $366 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $338 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $193 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $144 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Copperhead (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $123 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $113 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $102 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $101 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $94.28 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $94.28 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $87.35 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $84.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $82.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $78.36 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 200,000 | $75.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $39.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 71,429 | $37.17 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $27.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 41,667 | $26.67 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 1 in 35,714 | $21.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 18,519 | $18.62 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,765 | $17.83 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 5,291 | $12.01 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 5,464 | $10.86 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 3,636 | $10.41 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 3,322 | $10.03 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,747 | $9.53 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 2,208 | $8.50 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 1 in 1,189 | $6.84 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 894 | $6.37 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 267 | $3.59 | 3.3% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.37 | 11.3% | 24 | 37.1 | 0.65× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.95 | 12.5% | 66 | 59.2 | 1.12× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 11.4% | $0.59 | 16.3% | 127 | 124.2 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 12.7% | $0.51 | 15.8% | 148 | 138.7 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-battle-scarred) | 11.8% | $0.30 | 8.6% | 106 | 128.8 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-well-worn) | 12.4% | $0.25 | 7.5% | 131 | 135.6 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 11.2% | $0.20 | 5.4% | 145 | 122.0 | 1.19× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.16 | 3.7% | 105 | 103.7 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.16 | 3.7% | 103 | 103.7 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.07 | 1.0% | 76 | 63.1 | 1.20× |
| [XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.07 | 1.1% | 58 | 68.4 | 0.85× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/armcase/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=armcase)

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-battle-scarred) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.44 $0.16 0.36x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC

[FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.44 $1.37 3.11x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC

[USP-S | 27 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-battle-scarred) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $0.44 $0.30 0.68x 2026-11-09 14:28 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) [Lisooy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Lisooy) $0.44 $0.59 1.34x 2026-11-09 07:14 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) [Lisooy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Lisooy) $0.44 $0.59 1.34x 2026-11-09 07:14 UTC

[MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-well-worn) [Lisooy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Lisooy) $0.44 $0.25 0.57x 2026-11-09 07:14 UTC

[XM1014 | Mockingbird (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-well-worn) [Lisooy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Lisooy) $0.44 $0.07 0.16x 2026-11-09 07:14 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) [Lisooy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Lisooy) $0.44 $0.07 0.16x 2026-11-09 07:14 UTC

[MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-well-worn) [Lisooy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Lisooy) $0.44 $0.25 0.57x 2026-11-09 07:14 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) [Lisooy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Lisooy) $0.44 $0.07 0.16x 2026-11-09 07:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.44 | 93.36% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.42 | 97.80% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.42 | 97.73% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 0.2% Mil Spec Grade 0.0% Rare 28.4% #4b69ff 28.2% blue 21.3% #4B69FF 0.0% milspec 21.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.36 on average: an expected loss of $6.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt