---
title: "Armsdeal case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Armsdeal ($246.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.40% from 36 items with odds, observed 31.87% over 2 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Armsdeal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Armsdeal

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal?window=all)

Price · $246.99

Advertised RTP · 93.40% · EV $230.70 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 31.87% · 2 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 2 openings · below min

since tracking started · 2 openings · below min

-0.5% 66.0% 132.5%

**Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal?window=7d) | 2 | 31.87% ±100.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal) | 2 | 31.87% ±100.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal?window=all) | 2 | 31.87% ±100.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $4,689 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,714 | $2,505 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 2,755 | $1,989 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,717 | $1,982 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,497 | $1,924 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,096 | $1,814 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 810 | $1,386 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $1,107 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 267 | $901 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $825 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $752 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $640 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $493 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $479 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $380 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $340 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $338 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $304 | 10.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $288 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $272 | 9.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $270 | 9.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $208 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $194 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $172 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $148 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $127 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $110 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $107 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $81.10 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $78.66 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $62.57 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $55.88 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $51.64 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $48.75 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $47.28 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $46.98 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/armsdeal/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=armsdeal)

[★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $247 $110 0.45x 2026-11-08 21:00 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $247 $47.28 0.19x 2026-11-06 14:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $247 | 93.40% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $247 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 58.5% epic 0.0% Covert 3.7% Immortal 0.1% covert knife 10.6% classified 11.7% restricted 3.3% sunny 3.1% #ffd700 3.0% Rare 3.0% gold 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.40 on average: an expected loss of $6.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt