---
title: "Armsdeal 2 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Armsdeal 2 ($168.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 36 items with odds, observed 27.80% over 1 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Armsdeal 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal2)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Armsdeal 2

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal2?window=all)

Price · $168.99

Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $153.67 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 27.80% · 1 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 1 openings · below min

since tracking started · 1 openings · below min

-0.5% 98.5% 197.5%

**Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal2?window=7d) | 1 | 27.80% ±169.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal2) | 1 | 27.80% ±169.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal2?window=all) | 1 | 27.80% ±169.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 52,632 | $4,689 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,711 | $2,505 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 3,584 | $1,989 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 3,546 | $1,982 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,841 | $1,814 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,258 | $1,386 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 733 | $1,107 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 386 | $901 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 234 | $773 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 160 | $615 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $583 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $409 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $380 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $338 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $297 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $270 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $217 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $194 | 8.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $193 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $192 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $167 | 9.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $165 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $127 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $107 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $97.93 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $81.10 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $70.53 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $63.78 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $53.94 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $51.64 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $47.28 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $46.98 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $42.09 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $31.66 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $22.76 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $20.83 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/armsdeal2/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=armsdeal2)

[★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $169 $46.98 0.28x 2026-11-06 14:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $169 | 90.94% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $169 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 63.7% epic 0.0% Covert 1.3% Immortal 0.1% covert knife 6.0% classified 10.9% #ffd700 3.6% gold 3.6% restricted 3.6% #8847ff 3.6% Mil Spec 3.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt