--- title: "Armsdeal 3 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Armsdeal 3 ($150.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.68% from 36 items with odds, observed 102.07% over 13 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal3 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Armsdeal 3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal3) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Armsdeal 3 A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal3?window=all) Price · $150.99 Advertised RTP · 91.68% · EV $138.42 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.07% · 13 openings, sample method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 13 openings · below min 30 days · 13 openings · below min since tracking started · 13 openings · below min 56.5% 102.0% 147.5% **Small sample.** 13 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal3?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal3?window=7d) | 13 | 102.07% ±44.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal3) | 13 | 102.07% ±44.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/armsdeal3?window=all) | 13 | 102.07% ±44.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $4,689 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,085 | $2,505 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 7,246 | $1,989 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $1,982 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,618 | $1,814 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,358 | $1,386 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,075 | $1,028 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 577 | $953 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 309 | $752 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 202 | $627 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $497 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $441 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $358 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $302 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $270 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $217 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $194 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $193 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $189 | 7.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $172 | 10.2% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.86× | | [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $167 | 9.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $132 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $107 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $89.10 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $87.07 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $82.73 | 2.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $63.78 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $60.89 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $51.64 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $50.08 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $39.81 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $38.61 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $34.07 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $31.18 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $23.84 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $6.75 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/armsdeal3/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=armsdeal3) [CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $151 $95.27 0.63x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC [★ Bayonet | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $151 $175 1.16x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $151 $89.09 0.59x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC [★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $151 $169 1.12x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC [★ Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $151 $204 1.35x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $151 $6.74 0.04x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $151 $40.81 0.27x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $151 $241 1.60x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC [★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $151 $169 1.12x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC [★ Bayonet | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $151 $175 1.16x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $151 | 91.68% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $151 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 56.7% epic 0.0% Covert 0.0% Immortal 0.0% covert knife 5.4% #ffd700 5.8% #eb4b4b 3.6% restricted 7.1% classified 10.7% mil spec 7.1% violet 3.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.68 on average: an expected loss of $8.32 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt