--- title: "Ascent case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ascent ($0.28) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.93% from 34 items with odds, observed 97.19% over 1,742 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ascent rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Ascent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ascent) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Ascent A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ascent?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ascent?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ascent) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ascent?window=all) Price · $0.28 Advertised RTP · 94.93% · EV $0.27 from 34 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.19% · 1,742 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 57.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 101.74% ±11.50 219 openings 7 days · 97.19% ±4.08 1,742 openings 30 days · 97.19% ±4.08 1,742 openings since tracking started · 97.19% ±4.08 1,742 openings 89.5% 101.8% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ascent?window=24h) | 219 | 101.74% ±11.5 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ascent?window=7d) | 1,742 | 97.19% ±4.08 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ascent) | 1,742 | 97.19% ±4.08 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ascent?window=all) | 1,742 | 97.19% ±4.08 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,000 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $32.34 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $12.81 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,429 | $10.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17,857 | $6.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 6,757 | $4.69 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 4,115 | $3.66 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 1,239 | $2.55 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | | [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 969 | $2.29 | 0.9% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.94× | | [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 178 | $1.37 | 2.9% | 15 | 11.3 | 1.33× | | [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $0.85 | 4.1% | 26 | 25.6 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $0.76 | 4.3% | 33 | 30.3 | 1.09× | | [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $0.72 | 4.3% | 27 | 31.9 | 0.85× | | [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.56 | 5.9% | 69 | 56.1 | 1.23× | | [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.49 | 6.0% | 60 | 64.7 | 0.93× | | [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.44 | 8.5% | 104 | 102.7 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.41 | 7.6% | 94 | 98.0 | 0.96× | | [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.39 | 7.5% | 108 | 102.7 | 1.05× | | [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.31 | 9.7% | 164 | 166.7 | 0.98× | | [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.31 | 9.1% | 167 | 156.9 | 1.06× | | [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.24 | 3.5% | 73 | 76.6 | 0.95× | | [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.20 | 2.9% | 85 | 76.6 | 1.11× | | [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.18 | 2.6% | 79 | 76.6 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 2.4% | 70 | 76.6 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 2.4% | 85 | 76.6 | 1.11× | | [P90 \| Reef Grief (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.16 | 2.3% | 80 | 76.6 | 1.04× | | [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.16 | 2.3% | 66 | 76.6 | 0.86× | | [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 2.0% | 69 | 76.6 | 0.90× | | [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 2.0% | 69 | 76.6 | 0.90× | | [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.09 | 1.3% | 66 | 76.6 | 0.86× | | [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.07 | 1.0% | 68 | 76.6 | 0.89× | | [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.05 | 0.7% | 75 | 76.6 | 0.98× | | [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.05 | 0.7% | 70 | 76.6 | 0.91× | | [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.05 | 0.7% | 95 | 76.6 | 1.24× | | [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.04 | 0.6% | 78 | 76.5 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/ascent/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=ascent) [P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-minimal-wear) [ПедикПоМатеше](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%B5) $0.28 $0.39 1.39x 2026-11-11 11:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.28 $0.41 1.46x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.28 $0.41 1.46x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.28 $0.41 1.46x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC [P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.28 $0.20 0.71x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.28 $0.41 1.46x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.28 $0.41 1.46x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC [Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-factory-new) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.28 $0.14 0.50x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.28 $0.09 0.32x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC [R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-factory-new) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.28 $0.04 0.14x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.28 | 94.93% | 34 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.28 | 94.00% | 34 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed pink 0.0% Mythical 0.2% classified 0.0% Classified 0.0% #4b69ff 0.6% Rare 14.1% blue 18.1% uncommon 4.8% Uncommon 31.5% milspec 3.8% common 3.8% industrial 11.5% #b0c3d9 7.7% #5e98d9 3.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.93 on average: an expected loss of $5.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt