--- title: "Assault case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Assault ($15.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.21% from 13 items with odds, observed 68.97% over 52 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/assault rendered: 2026-11-11T14:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Assault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/assault) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Assault A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/assault?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/assault?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/assault) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/assault?window=all) Price · $15.99 Advertised RTP · 93.21% · EV $14.90 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.97% · 52 openings, sample method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 52 openings · below min 30 days · 52 openings · below min since tracking started · 52 openings · below min 65.5% 79.8% 94.0% **Small sample.** 52 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/assault?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/assault?window=7d) | 52 | 68.97% ±2.87 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/assault) | 52 | 68.97% ±2.87 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/assault?window=all) | 52 | 68.97% ±2.87 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $1,955 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 7,194 | $366 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,096 | $319 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 218 | $102 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $88.42 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $81.64 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $68.09 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $64.00 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $61.61 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [SG 553 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $15.35 | 12.9% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.61× | | [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-minimal-wear) | 19.4% | $12.65 | 16.4% | 11 | 10.1 | 1.09× | | [SG 553 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-field-tested) | 32.5% | $10.47 | 22.8% | 23 | 16.9 | 1.36× | | [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-field-tested) | 30.1% | $9.78 | 19.8% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/assault/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=assault) [UMP-45 | Caramel (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $15.99 $9.78 0.61x 2026-11-08 11:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Caramel (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $15.99 $12.65 0.79x 2026-11-08 11:52 UTC [SG 553 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $9.94 0.62x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC [SG 553 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $9.94 0.62x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC [SG 553 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $9.94 0.62x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC [SG 553 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $9.94 0.62x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC [UMP-45 | Caramel (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $12.65 0.79x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC [UMP-45 | Caramel (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $10.30 0.64x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC [SG 553 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $9.94 0.62x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC [SG 553 | Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $15.51 0.97x 2026-11-05 20:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $15.99 | 93.21% | 13 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $15.99 | 94.00% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 0.5% mil spec 0.0% gray 0.7% industrial 2.2% consumer 50.6% Industrial Grade 1.1% Common 45.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.21 on average: an expected loss of $6.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt