---
title: "Astralis team case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Astralis team ($7.23) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.91% from 42 items with odds, observed 82.34% over 39 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/astralis-team
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Astralis team](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/astralis-team)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Astralis team

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/astralis-team?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/astralis-team?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/astralis-team) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/astralis-team?window=all)

Price · $7.23

Advertised RTP · 93.91% · EV $6.79 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.34% · 39 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 27 openings · below min

30 days · 39 openings · below min

since tracking started · 39 openings · below min

8.0% 77.3% 146.5%

**Small sample.** 39 openings and 7.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/astralis-team?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/astralis-team?window=7d) | 27 | 77.32% ±68.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/astralis-team) | 39 | 82.34% ±57.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/astralis-team?window=all) | 39 | 82.34% ±57.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,593 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,485 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,126 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,506 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,284 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,253 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $907 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 111,111 | $444 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62,500 | $350 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29,412 | $263 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 7,813 | $146 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 3,984 | $118 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,712 | $94.42 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 1,608 | $83.44 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 874 | $69.79 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 481 | $56.96 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-well-worn) | 1 in 477 | $49.50 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 226 | $42.47 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 214 | $40.73 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $32.59 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $23.54 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $19.88 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $15.38 | 5.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $14.64 | 5.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $13.48 | 6.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $13.17 | 5.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $12.83 | 6.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $9.68 | 7.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $5.74 | 6.3% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $5.60 | 5.9% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $4.88 | 4.7% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.98× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $4.29 | 4.1% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $4.06 | 3.7% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $3.57 | 3.1% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.70 | 2.2% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.87× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.68 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.47× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.50 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.44 | 2.1% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.37 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $1.08 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.35× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.84 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.51 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/astralis_team/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=astralis-team)

[P90 | Nostalgia (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-well-worn) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $7.23 $4.29 0.59x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

[MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $7.23 $4.88 0.67x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $7.23 $14.64 2.02x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $7.23 $2.50 0.35x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $7.23 $5.74 0.79x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

[FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) [±Бąŧя±•](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C2%B1%D0%91%C4%85%C5%A7%D1%8F%C2%B1%E2%80%A2) $7.23 $1.37 0.19x 2026-11-07 20:02 UTC

[XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) [±Бąŧя±•](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C2%B1%D0%91%C4%85%C5%A7%D1%8F%C2%B1%E2%80%A2) $7.23 $2.44 0.34x 2026-11-07 20:02 UTC

[P90 | Nostalgia (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-well-worn) [±Бąŧя±•](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C2%B1%D0%91%C4%85%C5%A7%D1%8F%C2%B1%E2%80%A2) $7.23 $4.29 0.59x 2026-11-07 20:01 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) [±Бąŧя±•](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C2%B1%D0%91%C4%85%C5%A7%D1%8F%C2%B1%E2%80%A2) $7.23 $13.17 1.82x 2026-11-07 19:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $7.47 $2.70 0.36x 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $7.23 | 93.91% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.47 | 90.89% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.47 | 93.17% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% classified 36.8% sunny 0.0% gold 0.0% extraordinary 0.4% rare 1.8% restricted 17.9% red 0.7% pink 4.9% #d32ee6 6.2% blue 5.5% violet 18.4% #4b69ff 3.8% #8847ff 2.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.91 on average: an expected loss of $6.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt