---
title: "Aug case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Aug ($1.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.25% from 36 items with odds, observed 98.27% over 558 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aug
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Aug](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aug)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Aug

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aug?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aug?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aug) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aug?window=all)

Price · $1.49

Advertised RTP · 95.25% · EV $1.42 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.27% · 558 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 57.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 558 openings · below min

30 days · 558 openings · below min

since tracking started · 558 openings · below min

-0.5% 121.0% 242.5%

**Small sample.** 558 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aug?window=24h) | 1 | 28.86% ±212.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aug?window=7d) | 558 | 98.27% ±7.38 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aug) | 558 | 98.27% ±7.38 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aug?window=all) | 558 | 98.27% ±7.38 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 558 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $307 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Copperhead (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $123 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $94.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $72.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27,778 | $49.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,850 | $29.75 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 4,587 | $24.96 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 2,058 | $18.79 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 916 | $13.75 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) | 1 in 463 | $10.71 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 219 | $8.26 | 2.7% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $5.83 | 3.2% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $4.83 | 4.5% | 12 | 7.4 | 1.62× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $4.38 | 4.9% | 13 | 8.8 | 1.47× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $3.78 | 6.1% | 14 | 12.8 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Plague (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $2.71 | 6.0% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× |
| [AUG \| Navy Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.23 | 7.1% | 37 | 25.2 | 1.47× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.94 | 7.6% | 27 | 31.1 | 0.87× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.77 | 8.2% | 33 | 36.9 | 0.89× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.71 | 10.2% | 52 | 47.0 | 1.11× |
| [AUG \| Plague (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.62 | 8.2% | 49 | 40.2 | 1.22× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.45 | 3.9% | 27 | 21.4 | 1.26× |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.43 | 3.9% | 19 | 21.4 | 0.89× |
| [AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-steel-sentinel-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.94 | 2.5% | 18 | 21.4 | 0.84× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.87 | 2.4% | 16 | 21.4 | 0.75× |
| [AUG \| Creep (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.84 | 2.3% | 23 | 21.4 | 1.07× |
| [AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.74 | 2.0% | 13 | 21.4 | 0.61× |
| [AUG \| Plague (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.71 | 1.9% | 22 | 21.4 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.63 | 1.7% | 14 | 21.4 | 0.65× |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.51 | 1.4% | 21 | 21.4 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.43 | 1.2% | 22 | 21.4 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-luxe-trim-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.36 | 1.0% | 26 | 21.4 | 1.21× |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.32 | 0.9% | 20 | 21.4 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.26 | 0.7% | 16 | 21.4 | 0.75× |
| [AUG \| Snake Pit (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-snake-pit-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.21 | 0.6% | 28 | 21.5 | 1.31× |
| [AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.21 | 0.6% | 13 | 21.4 | 0.61× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/aug/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=aug)

[AUG | Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-minimal-wear) [SvyatoSlowed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SvyatoSlowed) $1.49 $0.43 0.29x 2026-11-10 17:04 UTC

[AUG | Plague (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-minimal-wear) [EbuWashRot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/EbuWashRot) $1.49 $1.62 1.09x 2026-11-09 18:15 UTC

[AUG | Plague (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-field-tested) [Urban Kastom](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Urban%20Kastom) $1.49 $0.71 0.48x 2026-11-09 13:03 UTC

[AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) [treviand](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/treviand) $1.49 $1.43 0.96x 2026-11-09 12:05 UTC

[AUG | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) [treviand](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/treviand) $1.49 $4.83 3.24x 2026-11-09 12:05 UTC

[AUG | Snake Pit (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-snake-pit-factory-new) [treviand](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/treviand) $1.49 $0.21 0.14x 2026-11-09 12:05 UTC

[AUG | Plague (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-minimal-wear) [treviand](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/treviand) $1.49 $1.62 1.09x 2026-11-09 12:05 UTC

[AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) [treviand](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/treviand) $1.49 $1.77 1.19x 2026-11-09 12:05 UTC

[AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) [sevdiyor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sevdiyor) $1.49 $1.43 0.96x 2026-11-09 11:14 UTC

[AUG | Tom Cat (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-factory-new) [Александр К.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%20%D0%9A.) $1.49 $0.51 0.34x 2026-11-08 22:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.49 | 95.25% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 1.0% mil spec 7.7% covert 0.0% classified 0.0% rare 0.0% pink 0.0% violet 0.0% Legendary 0.1% Rare 16.6% industrial 10.7% #d32ee6 1.6% Mythical 8.9% Mil Spec Grade 7.0% #777777 4.5% milspec 18.7% consumer 3.8% #4b69ff 11.5% Common 3.8% Consumer Grade 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.25 on average: an expected loss of $4.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt