--- title: "Awp case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Awp ($2.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.29% from 36 items with odds, observed 94.75% over 1,088 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/awp rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Awp](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/awp) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Awp A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/awp?window=all) Price · $2.99 Advertised RTP · 94.29% · EV $2.82 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.75% · 1,088 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.25% ±8.80 419 openings 7 days · 94.75% ±5.46 1,088 openings 30 days · 94.75% ±5.46 1,088 openings since tracking started · 94.75% ±5.46 1,088 openings 87.0% 96.2% 105.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/awp?window=24h) | 419 | 96.25% ±8.80 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/awp?window=7d) | 1,088 | 94.75% ±5.46 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/awp) | 1,088 | 94.75% ±5.46 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/awp?window=all) | 1,088 | 94.75% ±5.46 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,244 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $383 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $304 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $213 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $131 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41,667 | $101 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 16,949 | $70.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 7,092 | $53.76 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $38.34 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 1,292 | $29.30 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 580 | $20.19 | 1.2% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.86× | | [AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-minimal-wear) | 1 in 264 | $16.73 | 2.2% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $13.49 | 3.2% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $9.78 | 3.2% | 13 | 11.3 | 1.15× | | [AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $7.95 | 4.0% | 29 | 17.8 | 1.63× | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $7.22 | 5.1% | 21 | 24.9 | 0.84× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $5.54 | 5.4% | 31 | 34.1 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $4.96 | 6.3% | 42 | 44.9 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.19 | 7.3% | 52 | 60.7 | 0.86× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $3.63 | 8.0% | 74 | 77.6 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.37 | 8.2% | 76 | 85.4 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $3.13 | 8.9% | 103 | 100.1 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.69 | 3.9% | 49 | 51.4 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.51 | 3.7% | 57 | 51.4 | 1.11× | | [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.50 | 3.7% | 61 | 51.4 | 1.19× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.45 | 3.6% | 56 | 51.4 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.22 | 3.3% | 49 | 51.4 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.98 | 2.9% | 43 | 51.4 | 0.84× | | [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.93 | 2.8% | 58 | 51.4 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.83 | 2.7% | 47 | 51.4 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.32 | 1.9% | 53 | 51.4 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.04 | 1.5% | 61 | 51.4 | 1.19× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.85 | 1.2% | 58 | 51.4 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.82 | 1.2% | 47 | 51.4 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.71 | 1.0% | 46 | 51.4 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.63 | 0.9% | 59 | 51.4 | 1.15× | | [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.41 | 0.6% | 41 | 51.4 | 0.80× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/awp/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=awp) [AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $3.37 1.13x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $0.71 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $2.69 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $7.95 2.66x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) [Бобр жора](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%80%20%D0%B6%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0) $2.99 $0.41 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) [Бобр жора](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%80%20%D0%B6%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0) $2.99 $4.19 1.40x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $1.98 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC [AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $2.22 0.74x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $3.37 1.13x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $4.19 1.40x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.99 | 94.29% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.99 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #d32ee6 0.0% covert 0.0% rare 0.0% Ancient 0.0% pink 0.5% #d32ce6 0.2% classified 7.5% Legendary 0.9% Mythical 13.6% violet 2.0% #4b69ff 6.9% Classified 3.6% blue 9.0% restricted 26.9% Mil Spec Grade 4.1% #8847ff 8.3% Rare 8.3% milspec 8.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.29 on average: an expected loss of $5.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt