---
title: "Aztec case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Aztec ($8.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.27% from 15 items with odds, observed 60.18% over 2 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aztec
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Aztec](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aztec)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Aztec

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aztec?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aztec?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aztec) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aztec?window=all)

Price · $8.99

Advertised RTP · 91.27% · EV $8.21 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 60.18% · 2 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 41.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 2 openings · below min

since tracking started · 2 openings · below min

-0.5% 97.5% 195.5%

**Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aztec?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aztec?window=7d) | 2 | 60.18% ±134.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aztec) | 2 | 60.18% ±134.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/aztec?window=all) | 2 | 60.18% ±134.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 1,866 | $167 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 539 | $109 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Lichen Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-lichen-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 430 | $92.92 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $53.05 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $11.94 | 11.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Ossified (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $10.67 | 12.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) | 11.6% | $9.04 | 12.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) | 11.6% | $8.89 | 12.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-minimal-wear) | 12.4% | $8.80 | 13.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Nova \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $7.75 | 10.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $5.13 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.44 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $3.02 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Lichen Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-lichen-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.04 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nova \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.93 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/aztec/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=aztec)

[Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $8.99 $8.89 0.99x 2026-11-08 11:52 UTC

[Nova | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Vi\[R\]us.exe> SPARCO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Vi%5BR%5Dus.exe%3E%20SPARCO) $8.99 $1.93 0.21x 2026-11-06 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $8.99 | 91.27% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $8.99 | 94.00% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed industrial 37.3% consumer 35.4% Consumer Grade 0.9% #4b69ff 9.4% mil spec 11.6% #B0C3D9 5.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.27 on average: an expected loss of $8.73 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt