---
title: "Baggage case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Baggage ($7.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.65% from 38 items with odds, observed 93.48% over 16 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baggage
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Baggage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baggage)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Baggage

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baggage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baggage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baggage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baggage?window=all)

Price · $7.49

Advertised RTP · 90.65% · EV $6.79 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.48% · 16 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 16 openings · below min

30 days · 16 openings · below min

since tracking started · 16 openings · below min

65.5% 93.5% 121.5%

**Small sample.** 16 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baggage?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baggage?window=7d) | 16 | 93.48% ±27.5 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baggage) | 16 | 93.48% ±27.5 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baggage?window=all) | 16 | 93.48% ±27.5 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $510 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $370 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $222 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $176 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $150 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $97.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 1 in 19,608 | $95.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-factory-new) | 1 in 4,049 | $59.71 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,736 | $46.35 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,348 | $44.84 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) | 1 in 1,230 | $43.60 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-field-tested) | 1 in 1,013 | $41.33 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Commuter (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,074 | $40.49 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| First Class (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,230 | $39.42 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) | 1 in 445 | $29.89 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Traveler (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-factory-new) | 1 in 214 | $21.55 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Leather (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-factory-new) | 1 in 172 | $19.32 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Coach Class (Minimal Wear) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $18.39 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $17.19 | 2.7% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Commuter (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $13.55 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP9 \| Green Plaid (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $12.82 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Olive Plaid (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $12.63 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Traveler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $12.28 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Commuter (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $9.14 | 5.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [P90 \| Leather (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $7.97 | 6.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $7.92 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $7.35 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Leather (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $6.79 | 6.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Traveler (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $6.65 | 6.4% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.87× |
| [MP9 \| Green Plaid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $6.33 | 6.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-contractor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $6.04 | 5.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Pistols](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $5.61 | 5.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Olive Plaid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $5.12 | 4.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $4.61 | 4.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-contractor-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.45 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.39 | 3.3% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.87× |
| [MP9 \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.12 | 3.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Olive Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.04 | 2.9% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/baggage/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=baggage)

[MP9 | Green Plaid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-minimal-wear) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $7.49 $6.33 0.85x 2026-11-06 12:04 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $3.39 0.45x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $3.39 0.45x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[SG 553 | Traveler (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $7.03 0.94x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[P90 | Leather (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $6.44 0.86x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[MP9 | Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $3.46 0.46x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $3.39 0.45x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $4.78 0.64x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $16.53 2.21x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $7.49 $16.53 2.21x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $7.49 | 90.65% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $7.49 | 94.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.0% restricted 0.0% mil spec 0.4% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% Rare 0.1% industrial 6.2% Industrial Grade 13.4% other 7.7% Consumer Grade 35.7% Industrial 8.3% #777777 1.9% Uncommon 4.1% consumer 2.5% Consumer 6.5% Pistols 6.5% #b0c3d9 6.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.65 on average: an expected loss of $9.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt